On this page I post links to stories/articles that really catch my eye or summarize the prevailing zeitgeist. Articles published at TheOligarch.Com are highlighted in yellow.
| 28 Jan 2012 |
Germany Calls for EU
Control Over Greek Budget (TheOligarch.Com) Some good news in the Eurozone crisis both for the people of Greece and the people of Europe. Yet it's unlikely to be enough to save either Greece or Europe, and the Germans must show more wisdom and courage. This is not just a government debt crisis, it is also a crisis of working practices, cowardly tax collection, incompetent expensive government bureaucracy, too much health and pension spending and not enough investment, too many liberal artists and not enough scientists and engineers, etc, etc. All these things must be urgently addressed to save Greece, yet it's clear Greek democracy is too corrupt and incompetent to face up to its challenges. Therefore, as I said many years ago in my first article about Greece, this crisis has always been destined to end in either Greece temporarily seceding sovereignty or Greece leaving Europe, and by constantly refusing to face this choice the Germans are killing both the people of Greece and Europe. Elite Western newspapers refuse to even discuss this topic but it's absolutely critical, today we should welcome this small step in the right direction, it shows the bohemians who run Europe are growing up - slightly. |
| 28 Jan 2012 | George Osborne talks capitalism (TheOligarch.Com) |
| 26 Jan 2012 |
Jeremy Warner goes to Davos
(TheOligach.Com)
We are in the midst of a financial and economic crisis, so the people who are going to find the new vision first are naturally going to be the experts working in financial markets... Everyone can talk about finance and economics, but the difference between a proprietary trader and a financial journalist is that the trader really knows what it means to be wrong, he has been tempered by the fires of the marketplace like one of those pieces of iron repeatedly beaten by the blacksmith in his workshop... |
| 25 Jan 2012 |
Year of The Dragon (TheOligarch.Com) The FT wrote an article called "Chinese soothsayer sees economic storms in 2012 Year Of The Dragon", which stimulated me to write about the difference between philosophy and soothsaying and paradigm change and what seems to me to be happening right now. |
| 25 Jan 2012 |
Merkel Masters Markets With European Austerity Programs (Bloomberg) Another good article from Bloomberg. The article says "Angle Merkel has rejected what she calls Anglo-Saxon solutions" and embraced Teutonic Discipline, and she is winning plaudits for her strength both from German voters back home and from investors in the Eurozone who are buying its currency, stocks and even some peripheral bonds. Back in the 1997, the Anglo-Saxon led IMF famously imposed severe budget cuts, vicious interest rate increases, and frightening trade liberalization on countries such as Thailand during the Asian crisis; but now the boot is on the other foot the Anglo-Saxons are doing precisely the opposite. The UK, in particular, is running negative 4% to 5% interest rates, and has printed money amounting to a remarkable 20% of its GDP. Angela Merkel's austerity programmes aren't nearly as tough as those imposed on Asian countries in 1997 by the IMF, but in a Western world which now revolves around the question "who has the least dirty shirt", she is the unquestioned hero. |
| 23 Jan 2012 | Faith in government plummets giving businessmen a rare opportunity to take lead (Financial Times) Warren Buffet could walk the presidency, but instead he loves his "pricing power" "brand value" "rent seeking" investment fund long Coke & Gillette & McDonalds etc. Is there a single rich and famous man in the Western world worthy of the word "wisdom" or "saviour"? Socrates said for a wise man democracy is such a grievous frustration that no single thing on earth is comparable to it - but Warren Buffet doesn't describe democracy as an injustice so clearly he is not what Socrates called wise. Isaiah the prophet said: "Though the messiah lives in pain he will not quarrel or cry out, nor will anyone hear his name shouted in the streets. A battered reed he will not break off, nor a smouldering wick shall he put out, until he leads justice to victory [a battered reed should be cut allowing re-growth, a smouldering wick extinguished to avoid wasting oil, so it's a quote about the corrupted young who can never benefit society and must be weeded out, and the now useless old who can no longer benefit society and must be pruned back]." I don't think Warren Buffet is living in pain and plotting revolution, so clearly he is no messiah either! |
| 18 Jan 2012 |
Self Interest without restraint
destroys capitalism (TheOligarch.Com) This afternoon Jeffery Sacks published in the Financial Times what I think is the most powerful article about capitalism that I have seen in the Western press to date. It's potentially a watershed article, but we shall see, the elite are famous for their good words, but what matters to both men and gods is their deeds. |
| 17 Jan 2012 |
Letter to Iannis Mourmouras
(Greek Economy) (TheOligarch.Com) The Wall Street Journal wrote a pretty good article about Italy today, and it stimulated me to write to a Greek politician about growth models for Greece. |
| 16 Jan 2012 | Friday 13th Eurozone Crash - Greece Restructuring & S&P Downgrade (Ha-Joon Chang, Guardian) Is HMS UK headed toward another Titanic, Costa Concordia, Friday 13th style break-up on the rocks? (Boris Johnson, Telegraph). Who said fate doesn't have poetry? Isn't it the poetry of life, the synchronicity of nature, displayed in both the marvels of balmy sandy beaches and awesome storms, that wakes us up to the divine harmony and purpose of life? Like Neo, life begins when we feel the matrix, did the black cat pass twice on Friday? Well 2012 starts with some fire, on Friday the 13th, in the centenary year of the Titanic, the mad insane Italian captain of a 450 million euro palace equipped with all the latest technology sinks his vessel whilst playing some kind of inexplicable game. Unlike the Captain of the Titanic, he doesn't remain aboard, he immediately slinks away and lies about the nature of the accident, he displays a level of unprofessionalism and corruption and madness unimaginable a hundred years ago. At the same time the Greek voluntarily debt restructuring hits another rock, so an armageddon like disorderly default now looms for Greece. The clock is ticking but like the dining room of the Titanic all is still, no newspaper has even published an article suggesting the atom bomb be switched off by suspending parliament and seizing the offshore assets of wealthy Greeks using the sort of tools they so often do for Middle Eastern opponents. When the bomb goes off the ECB will hand German and Dutch taxpayers a bill for about 300 billion euros, the Church bells will ring with the death of liberal EU politics and EU harmony, but all is not lost, on the bright side the sight of 11 million people committing suicide might wake everyone up. By another quirk of fate, also on Friday the 13th, S&P downgraded the sovereign debt of many European countries- and especially France. Ah yes wonderful France, President Sarkozy combines almost the political authority of Napoleon with both greater personal stature and a far more beautiful and faithful Josephine, yet alas he has achieved nothing with his term of office and dear old France is slipping into the abyss. Oh the mindlessness and madness of the world, and oh the beauty of its destruction, what greater way to wake the cowardly chattering money grubbing muddle headed liberal atheist elite up than to burn the world so poetically. When will the next thunderbolt strike the earth? The pink kool-aid drinking elite are just getting nervous now, but when will their hair stand up on end, their legs shake, and their brow run with sweat? And when it comes to that, will they slink off like the captain of the Costa Concordi, or fight to repair what they have done? |
| 14 Jan 2012 |
Letter to Samuel Brittan at the FT:
New Economic Models (TheOligarch.Com) Though I have written a zillion words about a zillions different topics, and not one of either is any good, if there is any single wonderful thing of importance a person can learn from this silly web site it is this... |
| 06 Jan 2012 |
Any self-respecting political guru
would begin by abolishing himself(TheOligarch.Com)
Let me sharpen up and rewrite this Telegraph article as follows: What is a
political guru? A wild young man or a starry eyed old man who has let go
of the moral and intellectual box that imprisons the rest of humanity, a
guru who points out the lunacy of society and teaches us to expand our
minds and take control of life. Some specialise in the dark arts of
appearances, we call these men PR gurus, Spin Doctors, Witch Doctors,
Sophists and Cave Painters. Some specialise in the exact opposite,
looking into the light and trying to turn people's backs to the cave
wall, the very cave wall they have spent a lifetime watching and
enjoying. We call this second type philosophers, dreamers and idealists
who talk about ships and stars and gods and goods and other strange
things... |
| 04 Jan 2012 |
China culls low taste TV shows
(TheOligarch.Com) Western Journalists constantly accuse the Chinese of managing cultural forces to maintain their grip on power. They say CCP censorship is a purely partisan self-interest issue which points in the opposite direction of justice, and therefore the Chinese leaders are unenlightened individuals. Furthermore, Western journalists say the Chinese leaders are fully aware of this violation of justice, so they are therefore what we philosophers calls sinners shamelessly committing evil. In the West, like women, we say everyone is born in sin and lives in sin and can only be redeemed by a good man, so an accusation of corruption rolls like water off a ducks back; in East, however, the men take objective truth seriously, so an accusation of shameless corruption is extremely serious and liable to create great animosity - which indeed it has... |
| 04 Jan 2012 |
The GOP Debate: Principles vs Pragmatism (WSJ) The article says: "The principles-first view of the primary season goes something like this: The Republican party was cast out of the White House because it lost its fealty to its conservative principles, first in the excessive spending of the George W. Bush administration, and then... The pragmatism-first view goes something like this: The shortcomings of Mr. Obama have given the Republicans a historic opportunity. The way to capitalize isn't threatening to send the government into default or by standing in the way of a popular payroll-tax cut—but rather to make sure Republicans are seen as the sensible alternative to Obama-ism." Do you see the whole debate revolves around crowd perceptions, there is absolutely no objectivity, no love of truth and justice anywhere in the politics at all? This is what I am taking about when I go on an on about the debate between the Dionysian and the scientist. Can you see how democracy is just lies? When the politicians forget they are lairs and start drinking their own kool-aid they run the Titanic at full steam into an iceberg and kill everyone. American Politics has become the antithesis of "What would Jesus Say?", it has become "Whatever gives me power over my fellow man". When people turn their back on truth and justice the gods hate them and destroy them. It starts with Bertrand Russell the elite liberal atheist feeding his need for love by flattering the sheep, then Newt Gingrich keeps the flock in order with erotic lustful passion and conspiracy theories, finally the passion dries and cracks under the stresses and strains of reality, all the sugary surface falls away and a tyrant walks out, voilà DSK the rapist. See how silly the Vampire films are with the garlic and crosses. Like the film "Night of the Hunter", the greatest evil carries a cross and wears the robes of Christ, but deep inside he is an impostor, an agent of the devil who spreads the plague from Tea Party congregations. Yet the devil is the greatest trickster of them all. I am afraid to talk about it on the internet for fear of driving everyone mad, but why do you think evil was blamed on Pandora by the Ancient Greeks, Eve by the Christians, and the Yin by the early Taoists? Do you see the final unspeakable truth, it's not Night of The Hunter, the devil uses the Dionysian skills to masquerade as your loving suffering mother! Of course I am speaking in riddles, but that's the only way true philosophy can be spoken of. Unlike Socrates I do not have the divine sign that told him what not to do, so thank god I am too stupid to write for hell, I can't accidentally kill the world by it's greatest invention, yet nor can I save it. |
| 02 Jan 2012 |
WSJ:
China Pins Hopes On Public Housing (Wall Street Journal) China is making an enormous investment in state housing, building enough new homes to house approximately one hundred million people - following Singapore's housing example and stimulating the economy. China is a big country, but even if you divide the numbers by twenty to get the UK equivalent we are taking about a project that is so vast it probably dwarfs anything that any UK government has done since the second world war. This is the sort of story that would be all over the press if anyone in the UK actually cared about starting a meaningful debate about new economic models. I have been banging on about housing since the late 1990s, I have posted numerous comments about it at the FT, talked to Conservative politicians, to Philip Blond, to Taylor Wimpy, always pushing a grand Poundbury style building project. I don't even think you could even call the government's housing policy chicken feed, it's just chicken talk. The truth is everything I have done to help the UK has failed, even as regards to this simple non-philosophical issue. I am ashamed of my efforts, I was too aggressive, Socrates draws his subjects in by saying "you are so wise and brilliant, please explain ...". I didn't realise this kind of flattery is not actually a joke, it's the way to suck the ignorant in and puff them up to improve their concentration span. The UK has had one good leader in modern history, Thatcher, yet she was hated by the elite journalists, the BBC, the academic economists, the pasty faced effeminate clergy, and even her own Conservative party whilst in office, and she only survived because Argentina was kind enough to invade the Falklands before the election and give her a chance to win the hearts of the people by doing something irrelevant to the long term economic future. I was listening to a BBC Radio program last night and they were joking around putting on posh accents and talking about politics, and it was lots of fun, but the terrible fact is the UK is a completely unserious country, and the only thing is that is going to stop the Brits laughing and bumbling is disaster. |
| 29 Dec 2011 |
Lessons of 2011, Future of 2012
(TheOligarch.Com) I think the most exciting period in journalism is the end of year, start of next year articles. This is a chance for the journalist to really show what they are made of, these articles really separate the men from the boys so to speak. Today I saw the first such article in the Wall Street Journal, it reminded of walking through the winter woods as child, one day you see a solitary bluebell bursting out, but within a week or two the woods are full of them. Well here is one from me & for you. |
| 29 Dec 2011 |
Modernisation, not morality, is the dirty word of modern politics
(Telegraph) This is a really good example of elite intelligent journalism. I have written a lot of articles about the swing away from liberalism and political correctness, also the idea that the political centre ground is evil not good, and the need for virtue ethics (that's Socrates most obvious thesis). What Peter Oborne, chief political commentator in the UK Telegraph, has done is pick up on this move and talk about it in terms of "modernisation" vs "morality". Notice that he avoids talking about any particular issue, instead he talks about the philosophy in general. I looked through the reader comments and one ran: "After wading through this I am still none the wiser about the meaning of modernisation, pro or anti Europe, pro or anti cuts, pro or anti immigration?!" That's elite philosophy, it just goes right over the head of the unworthily rather than leaving a footprint in their brain. It's like Cinderella's Slipper, it reaches exactly the people you want it to reach and no-else notices it. I am afraid I am a bit like Apollodorus in Plato's Symposium, in what Kennedy calls the second quartertone of the first note (173c), the bit that talks about earth thinking, the pleasures of philosophical conversation, Apollodorus says his strong passion makes him raving. I guess Achilles had problems with his feet too, which is why he almost brought the world to an end at the opening of the Iliad, and why he died in his youth. Anyway, Peter Oborne deserves a big hand for a great bit of writing. It's really important you get the tone right when you talk about morality, or you end up creating thugs. That's why I am talking a lot about Dionysian vs Expert thinking these days, expertise in ethics is for philosophers like you and I alone, the rest of the world should develop their mind by considering something more mundane. We don't want to build a new religion by newspaper debate, we just want to tell them what to think. We need to make sure that as they get tougher they also get more idealistic, the danger in the anti-liberal transition is nationalistic thuggery. Remember justice is not self interest, it's divine. Think about Sparta- the perfect soldier is fearless but not barbaric, passionate but not raving etc. |
| 21 Dec 2011 |
Should the ECB print money?
Eastern vs Western economics (TheOligarch.Com) What are the two targets of the statesman? One looks up into the sun and thinks about functional effectiveness, one looks down into moon and thinks about human psychology. Printing money fails to hit either the Western target of economic effectiveness, nor the Eastern target of self-knowledge. |
| 21 Dec 2011 |
Hague's EU veto has moronic old school diplomats on the run (Telegraph) Benedict Brogan gleefully writes: "It is said in Downing Street that shortly before David Cameron set off for his showdown in Brussels, he was offered a spot of strategic advice by William Hague. 'If it’s a choice between keeping the euro together or keeping the Conservative Party together,' the Foreign Secretary told him, 'it’s in the national interest to keep the Conservative Party together.' Shortly thereafter Cameron refused to sign the rescue deal, and Tories everywhere rejoiced... After revelations last year about his private life [William Hague is a homosexual] the Foreign Secretary was seen as a bit of sissy, but his robust treatment of the EU has revived his reputation." To be honest I am embarrassed to be a Brit, and very relived to be an ex-pat. I have written a lot about how this new Conservative definition of justice as self interest is tyranny. No longer "what would Jesus say", the new Tory motto is "what suits me". Objectivity has vanished and the communal sense is shrinking and the behaviour getting more self destructive. They think this "toughness" is what Thatcher or Churchill had etc, but they what they are heading toward is what Jungian psychologists call the shadow version of anti-liberal idealism, it is the roguish thuggish nationalism Hitler saw. Hague wasn't talking about the national interest, he was talking about the sort of short term partisan fix crack addicts thrive on. For the politician in charge of foreign policy to talk this way is especially terrifying, and it's why I say the UK on it's current path is both a danger to the world and a country that will ultimately destroy itself. Look at the UK press, unless you see signs of shame you know it's game over long term. People think I am making a fuss, that I am exaggerating, but if you focus hard and really think about this issue you will be blown away. We are in the midst of a horror story. |
| 16 Dec 2011 |
1.
Ties that bound Europe now fraying
(WSJ) (Factual Reportage Style) 2. Fiction of the EU Summit's accepted 'facts' (WSJ) (Educational Style) Just to show I can do plus as well as minus, here are two examples of good journalism today. The first article looks like it has been written by someone who wants to present as accurate a summary as possible, it's not playing tricks, it's honest and accurate and professional - not the usual sloppy muddle headed self obsessed bohemian nonsense we normally see in the newspapers. The second article is more exciting, it reads like a surgeons knife, it educates the reader. It picks out what all the idiots in the world think and surgically removes their stupidity. That's really the way journalism should be, to look for what everyone is wrong about and tell them why they are wrong, to act as the falsification force that contains mindless speculation and so prevents people becoming zombies. Remember Socrates used to joke "I know nothing", he invalidated he didn't assert. Invalidation teaches people, it makes their brain more powerful, making assertions hypnotises them, it makes their brains smaller. If you feel the politicians are doing such a bad job you have to help, you can cross everything out and end the article saying it looks like this is the last remaining choice. You teach by digging, by cutting the man out of the block of stone with everyone screaming along the way; painting images is what religious prophets do, and if they are genuine idealistic imagines they too should chide the unworthy. The invalidation concept is the biggest issue in philosophy, think about the story of Theseus and the Minotaur and the ball of string making off bad paths. It comes out of the famous "what is not" mode of thinking, the shape instead of the colour, the anti-Form. It goes right down to the deepest bifurcation of them all, the good and beauty nature of God. If you know Rupert Murdoch's address send him a Christmas Card. He has a lot to atone for, but he is making an effort. -:- PS How could these articles be better? They make no attempt to probe human nature, it's pure pragmatism and science. That's fine, but journalism at its best is like the writing on this web site, it takes you past the facts and looks at motive, it examines ethics, virtue, idealism. |
| 15 Dec 2011 |
Those whom the
gods wish to destroy they first make mad In this article I talk about nature of human thought processes, and how they give rise to the four dimensions of ethics, and how the absence of a what is not falsification check drives a person to insanity and death. |
| 15 Dec 2011 |
French say S&P irrationality demonstrated by downgrading France before
UK I have said the same thing many times. The UK has a higher debt, higher deficit, higher inflation, imploding economic model, geopolitical isolation etc. The credit rating agencies seem to think that if the ECB won't print money they deserve a lower credit rating. But money printing is only a pump primer, it can never fix a serious hole. The sovereign risk revolves around the idea of the world falling into a 1930s style economic depression over the next several years. At that point money printing doesn't help, the UK and USA will be caught with plunging currencies and run away inflation and they will have to implement sky high interest rates, or start wiping out certain creditors, or wiping out their monetary system. Do you think the Americans and Brits today are tougher and smarter than the early 1900s Germans who ended up in hyperinflation? The US & UK are run like Banana Republics, they are even worse than pre fascist revolution Greece in the 1970s, sooner or later they will explode. You can't bet on these countries turning around and becoming smart, there is no sign of any light in either of them, look at their journalism and politics, they are getting more and more mad every day. The S&P are mindless hypocritical cowardly Anglo-Saxon zombies incapable of any semblance of intelligent thought, their credit ratings service is worse than useless, they should be shut down and disbanded. |
| 13 Dec 2011 |
European Crisis - Blending
short term and long term vision at the People's Daily Today I want to take a look at an article in the People's Daily, and add in some some ideas that are covered in Plato's enigmatic dialogue called Lysis. It's not a long article, but I think it's pretty and sophisticated and will teach you some philosohpy. I say: If you engage a Chinese person in a discussion about philosophy they usually begin by looking for two philosophical opposites and then trying to find the harmony between them. In the West we look for one solution. So the Anglo-Saxons are focused on the short term solution, and the Germans are focused on the long term solution. The Chinese call us naive, they say their search for harmony is the pragmatic way forward. Yet the Chinese are not always right. One of the first questions I usually ask a Chinese person is do you think idealism blends ignorance and wisdom, or just seeks wisdom alone? |
| 09 Dec 2011 |
David Cameron and the drums of war
(TheOligarch.Com) Looking at the EU stability treaty agreement, and the UK's decision to be the only member state sitting outside the new structure, and the asking the question: Was David Cameron right? What might it mean for the UK's future? |
| 06 Dec 2011 |
Telegraph defends Standard & Poor’s Announcement (Telegraph) In today's Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says S&P are right to downgrade Europe, on its current course Europe is doomed. Mr Evans-Pritchard, there is grain of truth in your argument. But look, on the current course the US, UK, Japan and Eurozone are all doomed. What I am trying to say is that out of these four entities the Eurozone is really making an effort to change, and if you are a "just" journalist you judge them by their virtuousness not the impact on the UK economy. David Cameron's spending cuts were a sham, he ring fenced heath and pensions and pretended he could save billions with more efficient bureaucracy (article). Europe is not doing that, they are making real cuts that actually frighten voters and make ministers on TV cry. Thatcher was a patriot, but most of all she was courageous and strong. Socrates said a just man welcomes punishment, so truth and justice transcend personal or national interest. If you forget that Mr Evans-Pritchard, you stop being a good Tory and you start being a thug Tory. Frankly we could do with an Angel Merkel in England, instead we are printing and inflating and pretending we are tough when the terrible reality is we are dishonest shameful cowards going bankrupt. The UK deserves to loose it's AAA rating, not Germany. |
| 06 Dec 2011 |
Geithner backs Europe's Plans (FT) I think that's a very sensible change of heart, I think he has been bringing the US into disrepute by campaigning for short term measures that would keep the world economy ticking over up until Obama's election. Not only was it immoral, it was self defeating because he needs Europe to set an example to move US opinion. Wait until politicians & voters have accepted austerity and structural reform before you campaign for Eurobonds. |
| 06 Dec 2011 |
Markets slide on S&P warning of coming downgrades in Eurozone The FT says: "The unprecedented decision by Standard & Poor’s to threaten multiple eurozone countries, even including Germany, with simultaneous ratings downgrades reflects deep frustration at the speed with which policymakers have acted." Here is what I think: No one would claim the crisis has been handled well, but to announce this kind of thing right now when we are in the middle of a critical week for restoring confidence is basically insane. Right now European policymakers really are taking steps, ministers are crying on TV, automatic penalties being announced, no more restructurings, no kicking the can down the road with money printing or cheap borrowing. So what the hell do the S&P want? This is not America where the politicians are doing absolutely nothing at all to address their fundamental problems, but are instead pumping the engine full of corrosive rocket fuel, and are consequently motoring along at a comfortable 2%. On the contrary Europe is biting bullets and pouring with blood as it battles to restore it's long term economic health. Yesterday people across Europe were hailing Angela Merkel as the toughest most unflappable leader in the Western World, as a proper statesman instead of a politician. So I think the S&P are not only famously stupid, they are sick hypocrites with sour grapes. This is not science or justice, it's idiots talking rubbish, and people having to listen, and it hurting millions. If I was Merkel I would declare the S&P an enemy of Europe and excommunicate them. |
| 06 Dec 2011 | Monti's reforms- How is he doing, and where is he going? (Wall Street Jounal) |
| 05 Dec 2011 |
The gospel of Clarkson puts bread on the tables of Britain (Telegraph) Take a look at this article by Boris Johnson. It's totally wrong, but I have to say I feel a certain respect for his writing. If you are going to write muddle headed ideology at least do it in style like this. Not bad at all Boris, you are OK. But since you are in such a reflective and pious mood, have a think about this: Do you know what the difference between Tesco's Toothpaste and Colgate's toothpaste is? Can you tell them apart in a blind tasting? Do you know which is better for your health? Do you even know what the basic ingredients of toothpaste are? No? Then how can you possibly call yourself a rational agent maximizing utility? All those toothpaste brands are a waste of time that enrich stock holders and impoverish the people, we could set up one factory in Highgate that made all the toothpaste in England and save a fortune. Have courage Boris, the vision is out there, all you have to do is face the light. Remember what Deng said, cross the river in little steps feeling for the stones. Start with toothpaste old chap, and leave Clarkson alone for now. |
| 05 Dec 2011 |
Germans Remain Unflappable During Euro Crisis (Spigel) Record of Brinksmanship Shows Merkel’s Mettle (Bloomberg) Well deserved praise for Merkel. What did the Telegraph say? "Here's the verdict of our International Business Editor, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, on today's Merkozy (non)-event: Zilch again from Merkozy. No fiscal union, no Eurobonds, no ECB as lender of last resort - yet. Just the usual blather and a revamped Stability Pact (Fiskalunion). Yawn." What about the FT? This morning Wolfgang Münchau said "I fear fudge, no Eurobond. Contrary to what is being reported, Ms Merkel is not proposing a fiscal union [that's true and needs to be said]. She is proposing an austerity club, a stability pact on steroids. The goal is to enforce life-long austerity, with balanced budget rules enshrined in every national constitution. She also proposes automatic sanctions with a judicially administered regime of compliance. She rejects eurobonds on the grounds that they reduce pressure on fiscal discipline." Poor old Anglo-Saxons, they are just so flappable! |
| 05 Dec 2011 |
!!! GOOD NEWS !!! Merkel & Sarkosy announce automatic penalties, rule
out money printing & eurobonds, and drop the restructuring of bonds
(Telegraph) Euro up, and not nearly enough either. The world is looking up! I wasn't blown away by Monte's pension reforms, not shock and awe, but I really liked the new laws against cash payments, that's a great idea that will make a big difference if extended to Greece and others. |
| 05 Dec 2011 |
Putin May Shift Blame to ‘Fall Guy’ Medvedev for Vote Setback (Bloomberg) The article starts: "Russian Premier Vladimir Putin may be able to insulate himself from his first election setback by shifting the blame to President Dmitry Medvedev, said political scientists and economists from Moscow to London." I was listening to the election result on the BBC radio and thinking they are missing the Medvedev angle. I do think the iPad reading badminton playing Medvedev is way too Nick Clegg. Putin wanted some cheese to his chalk, but he seems to me not only too cheesy for Russians but also way of his depth in terms of economic paradigm shifts. I think he smacks of unprofessionalism, and as does the whole switching jobs around thing. Capturing liberals and conservatives with two opposites makes no sense to me, it ends up looking like a Laurel and Hardy double act comedy. I think Putin needs to toughen up his whole team and tone down the publicity. Silvio Berlusconi shows how disastrous playing around too much in an un-serious showman like way can be both for one's image and one's psyche. Learn from the Chinese, be a suit not a show pony. Everyone likes Putin's playful Presidential role to some extent, but that means the rest of his team have to be even more professional to stay in tune. Putin should try and make his organization look like a military outfit full of silent type sharp as knives KGB commandoes. Perhaps that's what Russia needs in its soul today, not fat old men or liberal kids, it's exactly the type of organization Putin was built to build, he has to love who he is and stop thinking he needs a soft side. In China it's different, they want more philosophy and less commando, every county has it's own image of the perfect leader deep inside their soul. If you think about it carefully one country's good is another's evil. |
| 04 Dec 2011 | Analysis of the viral video “My Tram Experience” (TheOligarch.Com) |
| 03 Dec 2011 |
European assets rally on Merkel's fighting talk about restoring investor
confidence with short term courage and long term discipline (UK
Guardian) Merkel says there are no magical bloodless bullets that can solve the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, confidence must be restored by courageously putting in place adamantine rules against irresponsible tax and spend policymaking in Club Med. She wants a new treaty ensuring federal supervision of national budgets, and she doesn't want to talk about Eurobonds until the ink is dry on a new political deal. She said her fight to make Europe creditworthy is a marathon not a sprint, and people better start getting used to that idea and stop asking her for a break. Next week Mario announces his first reforms and we get to see if Merkel & Mario really have turned the corner or whether they are "all mouth and no trousers". The Greeks are still doing their best to destroy Europe, Draghi is looking increasingly like a muppet who can't stand the heat in the kitchen, and there are still lots of doubts about how realistic it is to imagine growth models being handed down from the ivory tower in Brussels; nevertheless it does look as if Merkel is finding her Teutonic feet at last and both the Euro and Club Med sovereign bonds rallied significantly this week. In addition we saw positive economic numbers out of the USA this week, China encouraged banks to lend more money, and the Fed made dollars cheaper for European banks. All of this has combined to create a big rally in stock markets. But behind the froth the long term prognosis for the West still looks grim and investors are increasingly focused on emerging markets, Jim O'Niel of Goldman Sacks says Russia is his favourite investment. This week the UK government has admitted its spending cuts have failed and its economy is imploding. The low population density resource rich US is much better off than the UK, but don't be blinded by its recovery to a 2% or 3% growth rate, it is still spending like there is no tomorrow. What we are waiting for in the US is social unrest as spending runs down, followed by a sudden loss of confidence. But the UK is the forefront right now- sell Gilts and put the money into commodities. Greece? Realistically I think Merkel must confiscate the private assets of Greeks to repay their debt, but she still doesn't have the balls for this. If you transfer real estate from private to state hands on a say twenty year time span you can wipe out all debt and taxes and move toward a Singapore / Hong Kong economic model with real estate paying for government spending. Since Greeks are stashing their money offshore or buying gold bars how else can you confiscate assets? |
| 29 Nov 2011 |
Thames Estuary airport will be considered by the Government Just the other day the Chinese announced that they want to do a big UK project. Give them the entire project and let's get a new airport built in under five years. The Chinese just built the world's largest airport in four years, and they are the world experts on high speed rail. The money is going to be difficult, but houses on agricultural land make everything possible. Closing Heathrow and Gatwick will also free up lots of valuable land. This is really the perfect way to learn Chinese technocratic political philosophy, the UK government acts as political muscle, and the Chinese provide the cash and engineering and vision. Don't be politically cowardly and spend the next 25 years tinkering around, this idea has already been on the table for 17 years waiting for you to take it seriously, now give the Chinese total freedom, don't tie them down in red tape or worry about doing stuff on the cheap (speed is everything here). This is potentially a chance to push the UK back into the 21st Century and find it's Victorian Idealism and end the culture of nimbyism and political cowardliness etc. It's absolutely a god send for the struggling UK! If I was the UK Prime Minister I would set a three month goal on agreeing the entire project. Nationalise the entire Isle of Sheppey and literally hand it to China as sovereign territory if you like. Yes they are going to have to sterilize a lot of marshland and poison a lot of birds, but unless you have a better location that's what we call progress. David Cameron needs think about new visions, he should practice thinking: "This is war, what would Churchill do?". |
| 26 Nov 2011 |
Christopher Caldwell on
climategate
& how non-experts judge scientists Fate is shining down on us, yesterday I wrote a rather difficult to understand article about Plato's Gorgias, and I worried whether or not people would be able to understand it. Today Christopher Caldwell at the Financial Times has written a nice article which includes a discussion of how we judge scientists, and it demonstrates what I was talking about. |
| 25 Nov 2011 |
Plato's Gorgias and Modern
Journalism (TheOligarch.Com) A scary essay about journalism. |
| 25 Nov 2011 |
Death of a currency as eurogeddon approaches (Telegraph) The Telegraph is predicting the end of the Euro, and it says the world economy will be left in ruins. Hey guys, let me give you just one idea - and you tell me whether or not it would work. From an article on mine: "The coolest way of all [to solve the crisis] would be to announce a Eurozone wide state of emergency. The President of every country exceeding the Maastricht Criteria would be made a dictator with unlimited powers for a three year period, and would therefore be able to immediately implement the vital reforms needed. That's what I call a real bazooka, but you won't read about it in the idiot press." My friends at the Telegraph, why don't you do the world a favour and put that in your rag? Isn't it better than armageddon? It's in British Interests, isn't that your definition of justice? The truth is saving the euro without costing the Germans a cent is trivial, the problem is the political dogma that gets in the way of every workable solution. The absurdity of it really starts blowing your mind when you realise that the newspapers don't give a fig for what the average man thinks anyway. For example, journalists constantly urge the Germans to create Eurobonds even though 80% of Germans are virulently opposed. But the funniest thing about the whole debate is Mario Monti. The journalists were appalled by the move to technocracy, yet according to one opinion poll statistic I saw he is backed by approximately 60% of Italian voters. If that is true I think it makes him as popular as Obama was at his height, as popular as Putin, and the most popular leader in the Euro Zone! The people don't even want democracy, they hate the politicians, they want a roof over their head and a good meal, these muddle headed kool-aid drinking hacks are killing us for the sake of themselves. |
| 25 Nov 2011 |
Fears of ‘cosmetic’ reform as Portugal austerity bites (Financial Times) I want to highlight something positive at the FT today, and I think this article is a good example of responsible journalism. It says: "Economists and international officials overseeing the bail-out are increasingly concerned that Lisbon is making no real headway with reforms to tackle the country’s low productivity, identified as the main cause of its economic malaise. 'They take a list of measures and they tick boxes on paper without getting real results that will improve the economy' says a European official familiar with the progress of the rescue programme. The bail-out programme is a challenge to what many economists see as a propensity by successive Lisbon governments to avoid confronting vested interest groups by making superficial reforms that, in reality, change little." That's the kind of article we need, it focuses on the economic reforms we so desperately need if we are to survive the 21st Century. Newspapers should be filled up with articles about structural reforms, about vested interests on the right and left, and about what the technocrats are trying to do and what successes or failures they have had. I am afraid most of the FT today is totally unreadable. Martin Wolf has an insane article calling for UK Tax cuts, I don't any other UK paper would have printed that story. Philip Stephens is on his usual anti-China tirade. Sebastian Mallaby takes on the FT's other ideological enemy, the Germans. His appalling article runs: Over the past 18 months, Germany has tried every trick to limit its contribution to the euro bailouts. It has pushed self-defeating austerity onto bankrupt countries... Germans can reach the sensible answer only if they discard the myth, widely cherished in northern Europe that peripheral southern countries are the undeserving beneficiaries of a charitable transfer union... Although Greeks retire in their fifties and don't pay taxes, they buy German goods. I love the comments: ShanghiVoice says "and the earth is flat !", GreekCitizen says "Very good article -- straight to the point." |
| 24 Nov 2011 |
Letter to the FT - How to save the UK! (TheOligarch.Com) I have been trying for years to get through to the world by writing comments at the FT for several years, many of my comments have been deleted, I need to keep a better record for the sake of posterity. |
| 24 Nov 2011 |
Letter to
the FT - Shame (TheOligarch.Com) Thought for the day: Think about the difference between Kyle Bass and Martin Wolf. |
| 23 Nov 2011 |
Save Europe with Italian reforms
not Eurobonds! (TheOligarch.Com) Things in the Eurozone are pretty scary these days, and Anatole Kaletsky has written an article today saying he wants to save Europe and end the crisis with Eurobonds, and he calls Merkel's refusal to agree to Eurobonds absurd. It’s typical of modern journalism, he writes a whole tirade about the need for German help without once mentioning “moral hazard”. It’s just a completely partisan rant, it has nothing to do with objective analysis of technical truth or ethical justice. Put all your emotions to one side and ask yourself what would happen if Germany went what we call "joint and severally liable" with Club Med right now. Do you think Club Med would use the money to change their life, or would German bonds yields just fall out of bed when the money vanishes in a puff of smoke and Club Med come back for more? |
| 21 Nov 2011 |
Boris Johnson's new UK airport would take twenty years to build say
critics You want to know why the UK is domed? China built the biggest airport in the world in fours years from start (decision) to finish (opening) - but they weren't even in a hurry. The design took a year and the construction took three years. During World War II Winston Churchill could probably build airports in a month - Stalin could probably build them in a week. If I was Prime Minister of the UK I would make them build the new airport in three years flat. Like Steve Jobs said - it's all bozo political corporate garbage. If you can focus on exactly what you have to do you can move mountains. |
| 16 Nov 2011 |
Goldman to
the Rescue! (Daily Reckoing) It's hard to imagine the financial markets as an agent of good, but the struggle between the markets and Italian democracy does seems to have brought about a contest between good and evil. Italy is at the forefront of a war, if the good guys win the world is saved, if the bad guys win a reign of terror is unleashed which ultimately ends in armageddon. The European elite don't normally have the stomach for this kind of bloodthirsty battle, but German puritans such as Jens Weidmann (see below) are refusing to let the ECB to keep on printing enough money to delay the contest. So the battle is on at last! In this almightily conflict what are the key statistics we are looking for to see who is going to win? I think if Mario (commander of the elite Italian army) can take the Article 18 territory (the first of the devil's castles), we know good has a chance, but if he fails evil wins. Article 18 is basically something Berlusconi and Prodi and all the other failed leaders of Italy have been trying to repeal for generations, it relates to working practices, and everytime it comes up the entire country goes on strike. Come on Mario, remember Steve Jobs: If you know what you have to do, and you know you have no choice, and you know your life depends on it, you can find that Samurai like laser beam focus that can move mountains. I reckon we need Article 18 to fall within one week, or it's armageddon. |
| 16 Nov 2011 |
Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann champions the purist approach, and slams
Europe's handling of the credit crisis (Financial Times) Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, gave a great FT interview. He said "no money printing", "no bail outs", "no default", "no exit". This was the way the Eurozone was setup and it reflects the German constitution, but these rules were violated by the troika of Trichet, Merkel, and Sarkozy during the first Greek rescue of 2010. The history of economics is littered with examples of politically cowardly populist leaders embracing money printing and bailouts in order to revive their country, it can work in the short term but the long term consequences can be appalling. Today both the UK and the USA are following this path, but the German constitution forbids it. If Mr Weidmann had been running the ECB instead of Trichet, Greece would have had to muddle through by implementing aggressive reforms, selling gold, selling assets, even confiscating private deposits and land if necessary. Had that happened this extreme crisis might never have happened. Asked about Italy today, Mr Weidmann said words to the effect of: "I don't care about Italian bond yields being above 7%, I don't want to see any more ECB purchases. The Italians can survive for a while at 7%, the important thing is that they must be forced to bring down their spread over Germany by wowing the markets with shock and awe economic reforms. Everything else is just smoke, just beating around the bush. Many stupid mistakes have been made in this crisis, for example, by allowing Greek restructuring we have undermined the market for sovereign bonds. Now it's time to go back to basics". Long have I railed against the incompetence of Merkel, Schauble, Issing etc - I think Jens Weidmann is the first intelligent statesman in Germany! |
| 13 Nov 2011 |
Osborne’s £50bn plan for growth Is it time to buy back your UK shorts? Are the Conservatives getting serious? Might the UK start to outperform the EU? This short article takes a look at wisdom of Osborne’s new policy initiative, and the potential for it to alter the UK's position at the epicentre of bad ideological economic policy and economic nemesis. |
| 11 Nov 2011 |
A new Europe must be built on the ruins of the old (Simon Jenkins
Guardian) The idea of technocracy is finally dawning on the hacks and they have all produced catastrophically incompetent articles. You can see a whole series of them at the FT, Telegraph and Guardian. Still I though I would post this link to Simon Jenkins' piece because I think it wins the Nobel Prize for "Mindless Ugly Spoilt Childlike Muddle Headed Moral Compass Ideological Dogmatic Raving Nonsense". |
| 09 Nov 2011 |
Eurozone Crisis - URGENT - DO
THIS NOW Ten year Italian government bond yields today rose to 7.5%. This is an absolutely disastrous yield which cannot be sustained for any period of time. What must be done? This article carefully answers that vital question. |
| 09 Nov 2011 |
Asia’s next export boom will be in new ideas (The UK Times) Anatole Kaletsky has nice piece saying: "One of these transformations has been the rise of Asia in the global economy, but it is not just in economics that Asia is overtaking the Western world. In Asia political and business leaders see the crisis as an opportunity to build a new form of capitalism. They assume that the future can be, and should be, better than the past... [On the other hand] Politicians in Europe, America or Britain simply see the crisis entirely as a threat to established ways of life and modes of thinking. Nobody is presenting a vision, or even a credible story, about how the crisis could produce a better tomorrow... Despite the “Occupy” movement and the swirl of rhetoric surrounding the protests, Western politicians are focused entirely on rebuilding the old system. Germany pins its hope on fiscal discipline. France may have brought forward the raising of its retirement age from 60 to 62 but its politicians won’t consider further reforms. The US Republicans denounce as “class warfare” any suggestion that taxes on millionaires might rise from pre-crisis levels, while Democrats resist any reform of social welfare rules devised 50 years ago... If Western politicians refuse to embrace new economic ideas, they cannot offer a vision of the future that would be different and better than the pre-crisis past. We shouldn’t be surprised, then, if Western politics is directionless and voters disillusioned. The next great export surge from Asia to the West will consist not only of new products but new ideas." |
| 03 Nov 2011 |
Merkel, Sarkozy talk tough and read the riot act to Greece (ABS News) Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou drops referendum plan Everyone is talking about the new toughness in Merkel and Sarkosy, it's like kids taking their first few steps. You can feel the mood changing, in a WSJ video I saw an American reporter asking some soft headed Brit "Why don't they just dump these Greeks? Isn't it time to pull the plug? Why are we putting the whole world at risk over this pointless corrupt little country?" Two years ago I wrote an article saying let the Greeks choose between exit or technocracy in a referendum, people thought I though I was crazy at the time but here they are slowly and painfully working their way back toward it today. It's like watching a bunch of children trying to accomplish the world's simplest task and constantly screwing it up. For a second there it got exciting, but now they have dropped the referendum and we have to start this whole bit again. Of course it has always been destined to end up in more or less the same place, but oh god how much easier it would have been if only you could have captured the children's attention for a few seconds and explained it to them! It's such a stupid mindless world, I am afraid I am slowly coming to the conclusion that it was our pompous saccharine British self righteousness ideological spell that blinded everyone. If you look at back at the good old days to Wellington and the battle of Waterloo, we were full of it even then, it was all a lot of nonsense. Well it's all slipping away under the bridge now, the new era is gradually dawning upon us, thank god because this is just mind numbing. |
| 31 Oct 2011 |
Steve Jobs, Walter
Isaacson Biography, Book Review (TheOligarch) Whilst the Steve Jobs biography by Walter Isaacson is a worthwhile read that makes many interesting observations, it doesn’t pull the pieces together and build either a clear philosophical or psychological profile of Steve Jobs. In this article I want to address that issue, I want to take my readers on a journey into the mind of Steve Jobs. I want to make sure that when you have finished reading this article, you’ll have something more than just an intriguing set of historical facts in your head, you’ll feel qualified to have a proper deep meaningful intellectual conversation about Steve Jobs. |
| 31 Oct 2011 |
Greek PM calls referendum on new EU aid deal in January! (TheOligarch) The irony of this "Laurel and Hardy" like announcement is that if Europe was run by professionals instead of Egyptian plumbers, we would have had a Greek referendum years ago. A Greek exit from the Eurozone is not the end of Europe, the end of Europe is Greece dragging everyone down by staying in the Euro and refusing to implement reforms. If the Greek people had been forced to choose between giving up sovereignty or exiting the EU years ago, Europe would be in a much much stronger position today... If a referendum is exactly what the doctor has been suggesting for the last few years, why have European politicians been avoiding it? Because these politicians are blind to philosophical images such as "justice" & "legitimacy", they are completely engrossed by the short term shadows flickering on the cave wall, they are like a drunk in need of a drink, heading toward pleasure in the now rather than thinking about the long term consequences of excessive drinking... |
| 31 Oct 2011 | Japan PM calls for clarity on Olympus scandal, $1bn may have been stolen by board members (FT) One commentator at the FT wrote: "I was in Macau recently and saw a group of Japanese businessmen playing baccarat at the high stakes table. They had plastic shopping bags at their feet full of casino chips, and the smallest chips in their bags were $10k, and most of the time they were playing with $50k & $100k chips. I asked the croupier about these guys. Apparently they fly in every weekend and blow a few million". Something really terrible is wrong with Japan. It's not just Europe & America, the whole world is imploding. |
| 27 Oct 2011 |
Nokia Lumina 800
running Windows Phone 7 to hit stores soon (TheOligarch) I once wrote an article saying Windows Phone 7 will bomb. It did, but now my theory will really be put to the test... This is the first phone that will worry Jonathon Ive at Apple... On paper this phone is absolute dynamite and should totally transform the fortunes of Nokia and Windows Phone.... Yet the question is: Was my article about Windows Phone 7 correct? Is the Windows Phone 7 GUI so downmarket and so ugly it will flop? My philosophy is really on the line now! |
| 27 Oct 2011 |
Eurozone - October Rescue!
(TheOligarch) What the EU are planning is some kind of federal authority that will impose better policy making across the Eurozone, but the EU need to think whether this idea is actually workable. The danger is that this non-democratic federal governance structure doesn't have sufficient popular support and Europeans revolt against it. Philosophically speaking, what we are talking about is a degree of Chinese technocracy in Europe. I study Chinese government, and I can tell you that the Chinese get away with technocracy because they control the media and have the world's highest performance legitimacy, but the EU is in a completely and utterly different boat. So I have given this matter a great deal of thought, and I just don't think their technocratic federal plan is going to work... In order to win the people's support for reforms, I think the EU need to come at the issue the other way around by talking "justice" and "punishment"... giving successful states more sovereignty and punishing failings states with less... |
| 24 Oct 2011 |
Sarkosy & Cameron Clash -
Democracy & Tyranny (TheOligarch) David Cameron said: "I realise that resolving this crisis requires greater fiscal and economic integration in the Eurozone. But this must not be allowed to come at the expense of Britain's national interest..." Now think about that statement. Think about the philosophy behind it. Do you agree with it? What's wrong with it if anything? The article looks at the degeneration of justice and the nature of tyranny. |
| 21 Oct 2011 |
Libya, Arab Spring, Popular Revolution
(TheOligarch) I wish Libya well, but I do not believe in popular revolution myself. It's a lovely idea that theoretically gets the job done quickly, but most of these revolutions end up like the French Revolution, the Cultural Revolution etc. I worry about the potential for democracy to collapse in the West. I can't see how democracy can survive the sort of horrendous lifestyle changes and structural reforms required in failing states such as Greece. In the 1970s Greece became a fascist dictatorship, yet people today are both vastly more spoilt and headed for vastly more pain. Even in those countries, like Germany, that have a reasonable future, I can't see how nationalism and war can fail to be provoked by the financial losses irresponsible neighbours will inflict upon her. The Western World in its current form, run by zombies that is, is a sinking ship with a mutinous crew. So I don't believe in provoking violent popular revolutions, I believe in teaching the elite philosophy. Perhaps you think I am mad as Gandhi, they just won't listen. But I believe in a strange sort of way that wisdom always triumphs in the end, those who spurn the truth don't just end up in hell, their regime fails on planet earth as well... |
| 21 Oct 2011 |
The Case Against Global-Warming Skepticism (Wall Street Journal,
Opinion) I actually think the WSJ is a pretty good newspaper, but the "Opinion" section is normally filled with with diabolically bad partisan tirades. So I don't read that part of the paper, but I do have a quick look at the headlines to get a general sense of the intellectual progression taking place in American society. Recently the WSJ has u-turned on the Occupy Wall Street Protest, and today on Climate Change. Obviously that's a big step up for American consciousness - a sign the masses are waking up a little bit and not swallowing appallingly stupid ideas quite so easily. |
| 20 Oct 2011 |
Rolls-Royce Powers Ahead in High Wage Countries (WSJ) This nice article in the WSJ talks about the kind of business we need build in order to stay competitive in the Western World. |
| 17 Oct 2011 |
Chinese toddler left dying on street by passers-by (Telegraph) A terrible story which some believe testifies to a link between capitalism and individualism in China. Such behaviour is inconceivable in the West, but the West is "yin" not "yang". Do you think the correct way to broach this subject in the Chinese Press is to talk about selflessness & responsibility, or sentimentality & compassion? Do you think the yang benefits by yin values, or are the opposites stronger in of themselves? In other words, should they try to be their opposites, or simply take possession of mutual understanding? |
| 17 Oct 2011 |
Stock Surge Has Its Skeptics (WSJ) We had some mildly positive economic data out of the USA last week, but all in all the long term prognosis for the Western world remains appalling. So why have stock markets in the developed word, and especially Europe, had such a good run in the last few weeks (eg Euro Stoxx 50 is up 18% since Sep 22nd)? Leaving aside the noise from the Eurozone debt crisis, the bull case is as follows: UK inflation is now running at 5%, real rates are decidedly negative, people can't stay in cash. Remember that stocks are protected against both inflation and foreign exchange risk. Also don't forget that sovereign debt markets are vastly bigger than stock markets; they're a sort of gigantic global store of supposedly riskless value used by creditor states, pension funds, retail banks, exporters etc; so a sustained loss of confidence in European sovereign debt markets would have mind-boggling implications for the financial system. Increasingly there is only one player left in the world with an appetite for much of Europe's Sovereign debt - the EBC- and everyone else is looking for a new place to keep their money. This is why we are seeing the development of extraordinarily aberrations in, for example, German Bunds which combine falling yields with rising default premiums. The world of financial mathematics has turned into a sort of insane virus ridden plague, a manifest microcosm of the state of European politician's brains. |
| 17 Oct 2011 |
Everyone knows David Cameron is a lizard. So why does the Telegraph
continue to deny the truth? (Charlie Brooker, Guardian) A rather frivolous, rather funny article to amuse you this Monday morning. |
| 13 Oct 2011 |
People's
Daily: China needs to make more effort explaining itself "China is the biggest country in the world, the second largest economy, and an enormously important alternative socioeconomic system. China has to use all means to make people across the world familiar with its thoughts, plans and dreams... China has made some progress, for example, the new "China Daily" magazine... But frankly China needs to do much more. Look at "Russia Today". They are picking up market share from the BBC and Al-Jazeera... For the many people who have become disillusioned with the Western media, Russia Today is like a revolutionary breath of fresh air. They have brilliant talk shows with people like Stiglitz and Chomsky... China needs a more self confident, assertive and sharper tone. Historically China has promoted itself in a somewhat business friendly capitalistic way designed to placate Western vested interests, but this strategy has become self defeating. The masses in the West are disillusioned with liberalism and disgusted with market fundamentalism. In fact, one way the West now tries to discredit China is by absurdly claiming that it is now more capitalist than the West. Being too associated with capitalism is toxic, and Western vested interests are using it as propaganda to hurt our standing in the world..." Very good my wise friends! Err, can I help? |
| 08 Oct 2011 |
Unintended Consequences From QE Gone Wild (WSJ) A frightening article about the impact of QE on pension fund returns. |
| 07 Oct 2011 |
Premier Foods faces an uphill struggle (Telegraph) Both Premier Foods and Nokia are footnotes in the wider issue of increasingly less homogenous stock markets. Remember, the danger that hovers over the West is the destruction of illusionary brand value (eg Triumph Motorbikes vs Honda in the 1970s). |
| 05 Oct 2011 |
Various articles about Steve Jobs: Steve Jobs Dies. Advice to the World: Find What you Love (WSJ) Remembering Steve Jobs in his own words: Best quotes (WSJ) ‘Captain Crunch’ was the making of Steve Jobs (Times) University of Apple to create next Steve Jobs (Times) “Inside Apple” describes Jobs as a corporate dictator (Mac Stories) |
| 05 Oct 2011 |
A European TARP, the new hope! The latest elite zombie gimmick to save Europe is a TARP. The idea is that European banks can dump trillions of euros of sovereign bonds onto the Germans so when countries like Italy walk away from their debt their banking system won't even collapse! It's reverse Moral Hazard! If the zombie elite spent half as much time implementing reforms as they did dreaming up new plasters, we might have a future. Instead we have gone absolutely nowhere in three years. It's so mindless it's actually unspeakable. Meanwhile, in the wonderful UK, David Zombie Cameron gave an entire speech about the evils of statism and the vital importance of big society small business localism. Deep down even he knows it's nonsense, he is basically killing 60 million people for the sake of his ego. How did the world ever come to this! Where is the revolution? |
| 04 Oct 2011 |
Zombies occupy Wall Street! Good on you guys!!!!! |
| 04 Oct 2011 |
People's
Daily: Will China be Europe's Saviour? "Only Europe itself is able to save Europe. What the euro zone lacks is not a cash padded life-preserver, but rather political determination and courage. Until now, Europe's politicians, who remain enslaved by short term public opinion and vested interests, have adopted only temporary measures. They still cannot solve the fundamental defects of their current system or propose practical plans to promote the long term development of Europe by addressing economic structural contradictions. Such a Europe cannot be saved by anyone else. God helps those who help themselves. Pinning one's hope on aid from others is a pointless attempt to escape from challenge and responsibility. The people of the world can only believe in European salvation when the politicians of Europe show courage and wisdom, transcend the narrow populism of Western democratic politics, shoulder their developed world responsibilities, and enact sustainable policies." That's a superb commentary by the CCP run newspaper. I love the way they bring God into an article on the Eurozone, that's exactly the sort of big picture virtue idealism we miss in the West. God help us, we never hear politicians in Europe talking in this sort of moving language. We need a People's Daily in Europe! |
| 30 Sep 2011 | How to save Europe, Part Two (Money printing) |
| 29 Sep 2011 | How to save Europe, Part One (Technocratic Prison) |
| 28 Sep 2011 |
People's Daily:
China
needs caution in European investments,
Europe needs self-reliance and innovation The articles say: "The EU is
facing a series of structural obstacles including imbalances between
fiscal and monetary policies, impacts of globalization and aging
population, over-burdened welfare systems, ossification of labour
markets, shortage of research and development vitality, as well as
problems of effective power transfer at the national level and beyond.
It is hard to resolve all these problems in a short period. Externally,
the global economic situation is not good... It could be predicted that
the European debt crisis may last for a very long period and the debt
crisis may turn into severe financial crises in some countries.
Emotionally China is willing to give a hand to the European countries in
difficulties. However, in practice China has to consider many factors
including the investment return, security, risk and national interests
and therefore has to be cautious while expanding in Europe." That's fine my Chinese friends, but right now you have over a trillion dollars invested in the US. US debt to GDP is rising fast and is about to hit 100% of GDP, their political environment is totally and utterly dysfunctional, and it's no surprise the US is not AAA rated whereas some European countries are. So what should China be doing? China needs to think about the endpoint- it needs to come to terms with the fact that democracy is not going to survive at say a fifty year timeframe, and right now we are headed toward some kind of dangerous revolutionary disaster. Once the Chinese realise we are looking at disaster, they will realise that spending money on early disease prevention (eg outreach, soft power) is far more cost effective than spending money on full scale operations (eg defence). So I think China needs to come out of it's shell and start trying to save the world in earnest. Organizations such as the WTO set the economic standards which countries across the world adhered to. We need a new economic and political model, and China needs to spearhead that. China needs to try and push the world toward a new paradigm in multiple ways, by investment, by political lobbying, and by influence over the Western media. For example, it should be reading some of the ideas in this article, and thinking how it can leverage it's political and financial muscle to follow through on such ideas. It should be infiltrating the Western elite, trying to teach them philosophy as I do on this blog. And it should have newspapers like The UK Times in it's pocket tearing down liberalism and imparting worthy moral values in a more religious way suitable to the masses. Right now it is a zillion miles from any of these things. Yes it's a change of policy, ironic, etc, but the fate of the world depends on it. It's not a violation of the "non interference" justice principle both because the West owes China huge amounts of money, because the West has interfered in domestic Chinese public opinion for so long, and because the world is colliding so rapidly that we are approaching the "All's fair in love and war" stage. |
| 26 Sep 2011 | Take a look at this well written & intelligent FT article describing the IMF meeting |
| 18 Sep 2011 | Zombie Journalism |
| 15 Sep 2011 |
Windows 8 Table vs the iPad The geeks say Microsoft has Apple on the run, is it really possible? |
| 15 Sep 2011 |
The housing developers’ dream that ruined Ireland (UK Telegraph) This is why the Conservatives should be using SOE to develop the UK not Taylor Wimpy. Cameron hasn't learned the forest privatization lesson, everybody knows you can't trust the private sector to elevate social idealism over profits. It goes further, Taylor Wimpy is not Apple, it's just a bucket shop. Stop being afraid of the state, think of NASA, Airbus, Huawei or Cambridge University (see article below about an EU Hedge Fund / Marshall Plan) |
| 08 Sep 2010 |
An Amazing August & Ideas To Save The
World (TheOligarch.Com) Bring on the EU Hedge fund, a Marshall Plan on steroids. |
| 11 Aug 2011 | I am on holiday until the end of August, in Italy of all places! Any parting advice for the elite zombies? Sell your gold reserves as quietly as you can because if you ever sort yourselves out with economic reforms gold is not going to be trading here. Besides, you want your people to keep their money in stocks or banks not underground vaults full of metal bars, you need to remove that silly safe haven by halting the price action. And if you don't sort yourselves out that gold is not going to be much use either, you can't eat it. In the long term, of course, gold is a potentially catastrophic investment, if that Chinese submarine searching the sea bed for rare earths works there will be all the gold the world could ever want for a fraction of today's cost (eg link). Of course zombies are herd like creatures that follow instinct not wisdom, which probably explains why the Greek Central Bank has been increasing its gold reserves for the last two months. From the German tax payer to the Greek vault, what a wonderful world democracy is! [08 Sep 2011 Update]: Yesterday we saw a strong rally in stocks after the Swiss Central Bank set a minimum level for EURCHF, destroying the Swiss safe haven trade. Personally I have always been a fan of unlimited EURCHF intervention, for example in this article. Removing the gold haven would be another positive step. Do you see that governments need to think about markets, they need to fight against distortions in order to make the economy more efficient and effective? Remember, the job of government is to promote wisdom, that's what our idea of Utopia and the Age Of Enlightenment Part II is all about. |
| 06 Aug 2011 |
Politics and the markets: Week of the living dread (Financial Times) The FT has a nice article by Alan Beattie about zombies, one of my favourite topics of course. It's great to see the FT championing the need for better government and radical economic reforms. But the FT has a lot to make up for, they need to literally switch religions and get evangelical about the new economic paradigm. Remember philosophy is an egotistical challenge, we don't need to write about all the mistakes we have made publically, but we do need to feel them intensely in private. Take a look at the letter Oliver Cromwell sent to his cousin in 1638, it describes his spiritual awakening, his earth shattering conversion from passive Catholicism to active Puritanism. This is what life is all about, passionately evolving to a whole new idealistic perspective and being shocked by the scale of our earlier sinfulness. This is what happiness is - to both evolve and do one's little bit for the world. I am a Platonist not a Christian, I believe in self development not divine redemption. But for those who think about "what is" instead of "what is not", the Christians are right to say that you can be saved and forgiven and lifted into heaven the moment you really repent, I mean the moment you feel the way Oliver Cromwell did in 1638. When one is born again by such a conversion, life begins afresh with the passionate fight for justice and against injustice. |
| 05 Aug 2011 | A Dummies Guide to the Western Economic Crisis |
| 04 Aug 2011 |
European assets plunge on
Berlusconi and
Trichet (Italian stocks fall 5%!) Berlusconi says he is "unphazed" by crisis and Trichet reactivates the bond buying plan. These guys are nuts, the Titanic is sinking and one captain is saying keep cool and the other is manning the pumps. Unless the hole in the hull is fixed by structural reforms everyone knows they are going to die, and the blinded self confidence of the zombie captains is just adding to the panic! Wake up Berlusconi Italy is dying in gridlock, wake up Trichet your pump isn't that big! God help us! Why did mad revolutionary Breivik shoot kids instead of these guys? |
| 03 Aug 2011 |
S&P tumbles 2.5% making 2011 a small down year so far Whereas the European debt deal in July managed to buoy the markets for a few days, the US debt deal announced yesterday managed to buoy the markets for no more than a few hours. American politicians have simply lifted the debt ceiling, they have done nothing to address America's enormous long term problems. Meanwhile Italian and Spanish government yields have risen to records levels, they now trade at about the same level Greece was borrowing money before the July funding cut, in other words at a rate that journalists & politicians recently declared unfair and unsustainable. Apparently Brazilian TV has declared US and European politicians "insane", last week China called them totally "absurd". My favourite example of the elite zombie plague is the news that the explosive "selective voluntary default restructuring" fudge insisted on by the mindless Mr Schäuble will end up costing Greece more money than it saves since the 6.5% restructuring terms are more onerous than the 3.5% bailout loans! If this is the end, history will record that the patient was killed by administering a painkiller that was both known to be both lethal and painful! Yes it's really that bad, this is economic Armageddon and intellectual Nemesis. With Italy dying the zombies who rule our lives now have to turn their back on the two options they have wasted the last two years chewing on, namely orderly default and federalism. Now it's a choice between break-up, money printing, or suspending democracy. So Europe's future rests in the hands of the Italians, will they declare a state of emergency or not? |
| 02 Aug 2011 |
Putin Says Unification With Belarus Possible and Desirable Belarus is one of last hard core communist countries in the world, and that makes it one of the most interesting countries in the world. It's got a reasonably well educated people and it's a very psychologically uncorrupted country, although it suffers from a lack of self confidence and parochialism. Older people in Belarus look back on the Soviet Union with nostalgia, it has struggled since independence and educational standards have slipped. It's authoritarian President Lukashenko was a simple village farmer before independence, but he hasn't been completely ineffective. Belarus has brightly painted clean cities and villages, it's avoided the faceless concrete urbanization that killed the Russia soul in the 1960s. Belarus would be the ideal platform for experimenting with utopian philosophy. Russian modernization degenerated in Wild West capitalism and immorality, Belarus would be a chance to start afresh and see how far the State Owned Enterprise model can be pushed. It could have profound lessons for the rest of the World. I don't think reunification is the right way to go, the Russian model is a mess, better to think of it as a special economic zone for experimenting with new ideas. It's got a small population (10 million), low population density, relatively unspoilt environment, and most of the land is still owned by the government. Currently the country is being crippled by EU embargoes designed turn the country into another godforsaken Ukrainian style democracy. It desperately needs external help, but Lukashenko is a proud man who loves his country and is very worried about foreign exploitation. |
| 25 Jul 2011 | Inside the Mind of Anders Behring Breivik (TheOligarch) |
| 23 Jul 2011 | Thoughts about Merkel's July 2011 Greek Rescue (TheOligarch) |
| 20 Jul 2011 |
Apple breaks $400 a share as record
profits are announced (TheOligarch) Apple and China, 21st Century Hyperpowers? |
| 17 Jul 2011 |
Gavyn Davies: Comparing default risks in the US and Italy (FT) Concludes: Up to the present time, the sovereign debt crisis has been ring-fenced to those economies which have no independent central bank. It is a crisis of default risk, and not one of inflation risk. If that were ever to change, the crisis would take a much more sinister turn. |
| 16 Jul 2011 |
Bini Smaghi: Crisis can be solved if
Euro states give up debt powers (TheOligarch) An article about the possibility of French European leadership giving way to Italian leadership. Italy has been in the dark for generations, but I am beginning to see chinks of light. Also, examining the latest idea from the ECB for solving this crisis once and for all, and explaining why I think the ECB should switch its attention to the nuclear option. |
| 15 Jul 2011 |
The people don't care about phone hacking (UK Times). Philip Collins says (approximately): On Newsnight on Wednesday night, Jeremy Paxman tried and failed to coax any interest in the phone hacking saga from his studio audience. The ideologues skilled in the black art of hypnotising the proles haven't succeeded this time. It looks as if the intellectuals are as out of touch as John Carey's book 'The Intellectuals and the Masses' suggested [Reviewing the book Roger Kimball wrote: Anyone seeking a vivid illustration of the proposition that an expensive education is no barrier to stupidity will wish to consult John Carey's book, The Intellectuals and the Masses: Pride and Prejudice among the Literary Intelligentsia, 1880 to 1939]. Nice! Philip Collins if you have been reading my blog I expect an email of thanks! By the way, a really good article in the Times recently was A Tory industrial policy? You’d better believe it. Anyway, the hacking story reflects the people's loss of interest in petty emotional hooks, what I call yin journalism. One day the people are going to realise that the real sin of the newspaper industry is dishonesty, and it's more of a sin at upmarket newspapers than tabloids. Blowing up the world to sell copy is a much bigger sin than hacking a dead girl's phone, and it's not confined to a few rouge detectives, manipulative dishonesty is the very life blood of journalism and politics. Roll on the French Revolution. There are lots of potential triggers around the corner: in America the failure of the Middle East, in Europe ECB default losses, in China American default or dollar collapse. All these things testify to the dishonesty and incompetence of the prevailing "intellectual" class. |
| 11 Jul 2011 Updated: 14 Jun 2011 |
Financial Times default
claim is terrifying. Is it over for the Euro? (TheOligarch) This article examines the difference between orderly and disorderly default, it also includes a little dialogue between Socrates and Martin Wolf demonstrating the difference between opinion and philosophy, then it argues that the madness of politicians is demonstrated by their refusal to discuss the "nuclear option" - namely a "state of emergency" to implement economic reforms. |
| 08 Jul 2011 |
Yin and Yang Journalism (TheOligarch) Understanding yin journalism and why it's failing. |
| 03 Jun 2011 |
Was DSK framed? Was he treated justly by the American police? This woman is clearly no Moriarty, they have gone over every detail of her life and there is no trace of a conspiracy theory. In addition, she didn't know DSK was in the room, and in her secretly recorded telephone conversation with her jailed fiancée the next day, she describes the event as a rape not a plot. Nor is DSK claiming she was a cleaning lady hooker, rather she just consented to the "Great Seducer" instantly. Do you seriously believe that? If she had really been instantly hypnotised by the old toad after meeting him coming out of the shower naked, do you really think he would have torn her shoulder ligaments while he held her head down, or left the other unmentionable injuries, or ran out of the room with a foaming mouth? Even if that's the way they do it at the IMF, do you think that's the way cleaning ladies in New York do it on a first date? It's totally obvious what happened, he is a rutting chimpanzee who had probably been playing with himself in the shower and in his blood lust he leapt on her when she entered the room. Everyone is talking about her reputation, but what about his reputation for God's sake?! Apparently he has been getting away with this sort of thing for years, this isn't his first attempted rape. Why anyone cares about her asylum story is beyond me, I wouldn't be surprised if for every thousand political asylum stories only one is actually true. Her fiancée is one of the many many young Afro American males in jail for drug offences, is that supposed to means she likes perverted old French men? Believing DSK is innocent is as insane as believing disorderly default isn't suicide for Greece. The guy is totally sick, I don't care how weak and stupid the woman is, he should be hung drawn and quartered as a national embarrassment not just to France but to the entire Western world. It's like Ancient Rome and Sodom and Gomorrah, and to talk about him as President is utterly insane. It's like double madness, first he does this terrible thing, then the world sort of brushes it under the carpet without really thinking about what it means about elite society, and now they want to celebrate his innocence. Hello world: stop trying to dodge the bullet, you really are sick, and you need to think about this thing a hell of a lot harder. |
| 01 Jun 2011 |
Ed Miliband repeats same words to different questions in bizarre TV
interview In a bizarre TV interview Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, spent several minutes responding to every question using exactly the same words, or almost exactly the same words, as if he had been hypnotised or robotised! Yesterday I was trying to explain what zombies are, today I find nice a link showing one of them doing his zombie moves on camera. Synchronicity! |
| 29 Jun 2011 |
Dawn Of The Dead Playing in
Athens (TheOligarch) The Zombie plague has swept Greece. What is a zombie? How did the disease start? Are the worst cases in the elite or the mob? How can the disease be cured? |
| 29 Jun 2011 |
China
mother is jailed for 'mercy' killing her paralysed twin sons Is that what Confucius would have done? Or Mao? Or Socrates? Or even Fredrick The Great? Are the Chinese elite turning into post-modern Christians? |
| 28 Jun 2011 |
Wen Jiabao weighs in with Hamlet and history (The Times) Quizzed about human rights the Chinese Premier lectured UK journalists on the importance of studying history. Chinese officials also said the UK needs to improve its growth rate, and said the UK is slipping behind other European states such as Germany, France, Italy and Spain in terms of geo-political importance. In other words, Chinese Officials concurred with the emerging idea that a bifurcated word is developing and the Anglo-Saxons are on the loosing side of history (the yin side of the geo-political duality). I was really thrilled to see Wen hammer home the importance of history in his UK tour. Just a few days ago I said on this page "Have you noticed that modern politicians never talk about history whereas the great statesman of the past such as Von Bismarck and Churchill were obsessed with it? Why? Don't you see that insight into human personality was once the defining skill of the politician, but today politicians are wrapped up in post-modern relativism, they don't believe in psychological analysis, they have the depth and finesse of children, they have no self knowledge, no idealism toward self perfection." It's marvellous to see China lecturing the world about philosophy. The 'failure to think historically' is perhaps the easiest way for people to understand the errors of the yin perspective. |
| 23 Jun 2011 |
Time for common sense on Greece
(TheOligarch) Common sense is the sort of folksy morality old people like Warren Buffet talk. What would Grandma say about Greece? |
| 22 Jun 2011 |
Nokia N9 gets rave reviews
but baffles analysists If ever you doubted that the world is completely mad have a look at Nokia. After years of failure they just released a gorgeous looking phone with a clean beautiful GUI that people are calling simply staggering (at least from afar). But there's a catch, a few weeks ago the chief exec already announced he is switching to Windows Phone 7 which has a completely different downmarket GUI that has already bombed in the marketplace and is made by hated failing Microsoft. So the N9 is dead on arrival, it's just some sort of PR stunt to keep the shareholders and distraught engineers happy before the junk comes out. I was desperate to buy the N9 for a friend but she said what am I supposed to do, put it in a design museum? I said look you can always keep it as a backup in case your other phone goes wrong. She said why don't you stop wasting time looking for a backup phone and just get on with the real thing. Christ I said, now you're really putting pressure on me to make my mind up, I am frozen in fear, I don't know which way to go. The trouble with men, she said, is that they're selfish. Instead of thinking about me you're always thinking about philosophy. That's why no-one reads you stuff, you aren't tuned into what the people need, that's why the Chinese keep outselling you with multiple little innovations. But how can I give you want you want if I don't know how to solve the multitasking conundrum, the deepest problem of them all? It's like a hydra in the labyrinth which is growing and growing and the only escape is to keep cutting heads off. What a geek you are! Do you think I want to live in a labyrinth fighting hydras? No, I said, but I don't know how to rescue you, I think the White King has fudged it and I need the advice of the Black Geek. No faith she said, don't you think God made this world to be perfect? Think about the White King and clean the fudge. But if you clean the fudge there is nothing left I said, it goes back to the way it was in the old days. Ah she said, a third way, use the invisible helmet of Perseus. There you go always talking in riddles I cried. But it was too late, I had used up all my wishes, the goddess had already gone, and I was left to figure it out alone. |
| 22-Jun-2011 |
U-turns are David Cameron's strength and may win him next election
(Guardian) Last year I said: "Instead [of pragmatic new politcs] we can expect Cameron and Clegg to coalesce around a highly liberal agenda which pushes both individual liberties and direct democracy. If Cameron and Clegg do indeed end up pushing such an agenda, it will ultimately prove disastrous... The national health service will be a big test... Cameron and Clegg are likely to push toward decentralisation under the banner of democratization, which risks delivering far less per pound spent." (link) All this has of course happened, but the government hasn't yet imploded in the way I imagined. I have been really surprised by the smoothness of Cameron's u-turns, I expected him to go down fighting like the average Tory idiot. I was wrong, but the Ed Miliband hasn't helped my case. Anyway, the Guardian correctly says he has come out of this looking a bit like a Philosopher King. Does that mean Cameron is a hell of a lot smarter than I imagined? Look, what he has done is the easy bit, the danger is he now ends up like Gordon Brown, frozen in fear by the big terrible choices on all sides and condemned to micromanaging the pointless middle ground. Cameron has stopped being a complete idiot, but the new world is still a vast leap away. Now he is back in classic centre liberal territory, the sort of territory which has killed every incumbent politician in mainland Europe. So what are the baby steps we need to look for if Cameron is going to transform the UK? Dropping the Big Society and starting to hammer the unions. The government is dead as long as it fails to reform public sector working practices. It can get interventionist in new ways (it looks like they are finally going to build that new airport), but the public sector is like a steel ball chained to a swimmer's leg. Cutting this chain is going to need an iron soul, but it could be done by a smart person in such a way that the people really love it. To do that Cameron needs to give up on silly toffee nosed Big Society liberalism, and needs to make himself a real champion of the common man, Thatcher style. Given the extraordinary political challenge I don't think you can try and play the smooth technocratic card, you actually have to win the hearts and minds of the people. |
| 21 Jun 2011 |
Corruption at The Financial
Times (TheOligarch) An article today by Bruce Anderson really sums up what is wrong with the world. |
| 21 Jun 2010 | The world's oceans are dying It's not just the bees, now the fish are goners too. |
| 17 Jun 2011 |
Hazard lights flash on road to Chinese riches (FT) Some big hedge funds have lost a lot of money on their Chinese investments. A long time ago in this article I said "For investors, I think buying Hong Kong stocks or property looks good. Or a pan Asia Pacific stock index. Chinese stocks look good too, but the rise of Chinese State Owned Enterprise clouds the picture - will Chinese profit margins be squashed by idealistic SOEs?". SOE is the end of outsize equity investment gains, and China is the on the cutting edge. Gambling on private sector, and especially real estate, Chinese enterprises seems very risky. It not just SEO compression, you have to remember than China is where it's at due to government intervention, private sector corporate governance is still notoriously, well, Mexian / Indian etc. |
| 09 Jun 2011 |
US aid to Afghanistan ‘does more harm than good’ (The Times) A report by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee says that foreign military spending and development aid account for 97 per cent of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product. This absurd arrangement has prevented the Afghan people developing, it has created rampant corruption, and when the US exit Afghanistan the country will suffer complete collapse. No matter how incompetent European politicians have been handling Greece, it pails into comparison with America in the Middle East! America has spent a trillion dollars making the situation vastly worse, historians will look back on the stupidity of American decline in wonderment. How did it all go so wrong? The Western elite can't blame it on the people, for example, the UK masses were against intervention in Iraq. So it's an elite problem, not a mob problem. Obviously the problem is ideological, its about liberal naivety. But can you go deeper? Have you noticed that modern politicians never talk about history whereas the great statesman of the past such as Von Bismarck and Churchill were obsessed with it? Why? Don't you see that insight into human personality was once the defining skill of the politician, but today politicians are wrapped up in post-modern relativism, they don't believe in psychological analysis, they have the depth and finesse of children, they have no self knowledge, no idealism toward self perfection. Indeed modern politicians perfectly reflect modern culture, they are zombies who have crafted a consciousness of complete populist banality with no creativity at all. In the Republic Plato demonstrates that justice is "minding your own business". It's a deep statement that can be analysed from different perspectives. From the karmic perspective it says that evolution really occurs when individuals start solving problems in themselves, by coming to know themselves through challenge. Don't try to hold back evolution by giving people a lot of cash, and don't apply your standards to them. Perhaps the best advice we could give the Western elite is this: both you, and the voters of your country, and the people in the world around you are like children who are still growing up. They need to be pushed, to be made better, don't think of them for a moment as wise old people who have finished growing and can be left alone to live out the rest of their days in peace. You need to be like the great statesmen of old who could read people and figure out what is wrong with them and throw challenges at them like the Gods. Alternatively you need to be as tough as boots, and make sure they don't try to escape the challenges the Gods throw at them by sponging or stealing from others. |
| 08 Jun 2011 |
German Finance Schäuble minister demands 7-year Greek debt extension
(FT) Schäuble can demand a state of emergency, he can demand collateral, but the one thing he can't demand is the one thing he now says he must have! Like the German nuclear u-turn, the German voters are supposedly irrational, and must have the irrational no matter what the cost to Germany or her neighbours. There has always been but one sensible conclusion to this crisis, and although it has not been printed in any newspapers, you can feel the idea of it forming in the ethers. What is the endpoint? The declaration of a state of emergency in Greece combined with generous aid from Germany. In this golden scenario the economic reforms can finally be implemented, a precedent is set that Portugal and others will have to follow, and the Eurozone is totally transformed. Now, like some kind of angry medieval peasant, Schäuble has thrown a hand grenade into the works. His action defies all rational explanation, all one can do is talk about German psychological flaws. Meanwhile more chaos. The man on the street has no idea at all what is going on, the intellectual stubbornness of the mad self obsessed politicians that run Europe is killing us as surly as those mad generals in charge of the Battle of the Somme. Europe needs less democracy, but it also needs new leadership. Elected politicians are poison, we need people who have never been tainted with populism running Europe. |
| 03 Jun 2011 |
German E. coli Karma (TheOligarch) Plato called it "the straying cause", Hindus call it "karma". Where does karma come from? What is it? Where is it going? Let's take German's u-turn on nuclear as a tongue in cheek example. |
| 31 May 2011 | Not The End of History (The Oligarch) (updated ethics and metaphysics) |
| 30 May 2011 |
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi says default talk absurd in FT interview Smaghi is an executive board member of the ECB. I think he is one of the most talented people in Europe, I wish he was going to be the next head of the IMF instead of Christine Lagarde. In this article he spells out the appalling consequences of Greek default, points out that Greece is capable of meeting its borrowing, and criticises the poor quality and reckless analysis of those that say otherwise. At the end of the interview he is asked by a journalist who can't understand subtlety: "Do you think euro area politicians are behaving responsibility in their handling the Greece crisis?". He replies carefully "The people should decide that." Personally I think he should have answered this question as follows: "Frankly, I think one of the major problems facing the politicians is the exceedingly poor quality of financial journalism at newspapers such as the Financial Times!". Look at the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal today, both of them have published mindless new articles about the Eurozone. One is by Wolfgang Münchau calling for political union (here). One by Irwin Stelzer saying all the PIGS plus Italy and should default immediately and get it over and done with (here)! This isn't journalism, it's tabloid fodder disguised as intelligent commentary which confuses the the hell of out the ex-teachers and ex-lawyers and ex-trade unionists who we have elected to rule Europe. Spot FX traders don't usually read the FT and the Wall Street Journal, but today their negativity seems to have gone to their heads and EURUSD is lower. All this despite Smaghi's interview being, I think, a real milestone in Eurozone affairs to celebrate. If we are ever to turn this corner this is exactly the sort of honesty we need. It's all a joke, and If Smaghi is to save the world he needs to take on the journalists. |
| 25 May 2011 |
Europeans 4, Anglo
Saxons 0 - Anatole Kaletsky (TheOligarch) |
| 24 May 2011 |
Not just special, but an essential relationship (Times) Barack Obama and David Cameron have written a joint article in the Times. It says, for example: "We will stand with those who want to bring light into dark, support those who seek freedom in place of repression, aid those laying the building blocks of democracy... This is why we mobilised the international community to protect the Libyan people from Colonel Gaddafi’s regime." The problem is that lightness and darkness are not defined in terms of freedom and democracy, they are, of course, defined in terms of the presence or absence of wisdom. The major problem with the Libyan intervention is that Obama and Cameron are on the wrong side of history, in years to come the EU might need to put tanks on the streets of Portugal in order to implement vital economic reforms. Intervention in Libya isn't a harmless politically popular gesture, it inhibits the psychological transition that needs to be undertaken by the Western peoples away from democracy. In other words, a peaceful ordered transition away from democracy is a huge social challenge, the elite need to begin laying the psychological groundwork asap, this policy moves in precisely the opposite direction. So this move means that if and when it comes time to deploy tanks in Lisbon, the event will be that much more shocking and violent. It also fails to appreciate how the perception of naive ideology is discrediting the Western elite, so the short term political benefits of not performing a u-turn are far outweighed by the long term negatives, making a violent populist rejection of the elite a more likely scenario. Finally, of course, it is a largely unjust intervention which harms both Libya and her neighbours, and therefore carries a karmic price. So Obama should instead be encouraging the suppression of Arab democracy whilst at the same time insisting on better Arab government. He wants to send the message: "Wisdom not freedom underpins the new philosophical new world order. Trust the elite, go home, turn off Fox TV, and get on with your life." Today's announcement by Sarkozy that France will clamp down on the internet is a baby step in the right psychological direction. PS: From a geopolitical point of view it's perfect. Remember the theme of 2011 is changing geopolitics in the light of last years ideological cash between America and China. Most of that manifests in a movement away from America, in the Middle East, in Asia, in Europe. But the UK, the US and even Ireland are the die hard liberal idiots who have been discredited, it's natural for them to draw closer now. |
| 24 May 2011 |
Italy Debt Downgraded, Spain in Political Turmoil (FT) The temperature is rising frighteningly. Italy and Spain, enormous countries far too big for the Germans to bail out, are falling out of orbit in economic and political flames. Nothing I am reading in any newspapers has any value at all, the only glimmer of intelligence I see is in the tabloids. The FT, for example, still goes on and on about the necessity of Greek default. But Greece's wealth, dishonesty, tax evasion etc make it the easiest possible EU country to force reforms onto. According to the IMF Greece even has 280 billion euros of government assets that they are too proud to sell just sitting there, almost enough to pay off the entire Greek national debt! What drugs are these journalists smoking when they talk about the inevitability of Greek default and the impossibility of repayment?! How the hell is the EU going to sort out Portugal, then Spain, then Italy if they can't deal with Greece? Look you mindless hacks, Greek politics today is totally non-functional, that's the problem pure and simple, stop squawking "default" like demonic parrots. In Greece the right wing opposition is now fighting tooth and nail against the left wing incumbents trying to privatize assets. A couple of years ago it was the incumbent conservatives privatizing and the socialists resisting. What happened? Perhaps the Greek conservatives have evolved into hard headed Chinese style state capitalists and want to revolutionize the management of their assets rather than just selling them? No, nobody is Greece is talking about breaking up the utility unions like Thatcher or the Chinese and making some money. The conservatives are just playing politics of course, and their idiot voters are lapping up their poisonous nationalistic resistance to the Brussels technocrats. This world of idiot journalists, idiot politicians, and idiot voters is a giant cess pit of slavish individualism and stupidity. The last great zombie hope is political union. If Greece was a province of Germany do you think the Greeks would suddenly have no political power and everything in Greece would be fixed by German technocrats? It's not that easy of course. Day by day the political climate in the EU deteriorates, even Germany is going down hill, it's flip flop on nuclear power testifies to the terrible increased populism and lack of idealism in the leadership. How is German manufacturing going to survive in the long term without cheap power? The politician's don't care, they just think about the next election. The problem is there is just no one out there in the elite who knows what is going on. They are completely out of their depth, completely clueless about philosophy. The answer is staring them in the face - DECLARE A STATE OF EMERGEMNCY AND IMPLIMENT REFORMS - but they can't bring themselves to do it. God help us. Even the Chinese are in the dark, if they understood the seriousness of all this they would be trying to reach the Western world. Yet they are not, they are sitting back while it explodes. I fear I have tried to reach the world in the wrong way, by talking like a crank as Socrates would say. If I had tried to open their tiny minds with sweetness instead of razor blades would it have helped? We will never know, the world is burning to death. |
| 24 May 2011 |
Kissinger's new Book "On China" "How do the Chinese think?" is the most important topic in this book. Kissinger is told by the Chinese to compare the game of GO and Chess. Go is a paradoxical game of encirclement from above played in the light, Chess is a stealthy crawl though the dark searching for a single weakness and stabbing up at it from below. But Kissinger seems to have understood nothing of what this duality in human thinking really means. At a banquet in Beijing in November 1973 Mr Kissinger said that China's love of socialism demonstrates that it remains “essentially Confucian in its belief in a single, universal, generally applicable truth”. It was the only time Kissinger said he saw the Chinese Premier Zhou angry. Not only was it a major failing in etiquette, he was implying that the Chinese are the dogmatists and the Westerners the pragmatists! From your seat in the stalls perhaps that's the way it looks to you, Mr Kissinger, but not from my seat up in the Gods. |
| 18 May 2011 |
Strass-Kahn, Justice & Greece
(TheOligarch) This article is pretty important, it talks about the concept of justice, also about corruption in the elite, and the sort of changes we need to make to our political system to reform. |
| 16 May 2010 |
IMF’s Strauss-Kahn Arrested, Accused of Sex Attack |
| 14 May 2010 |
Microsoft buys Skype Microsoft are gamblers, they are the philosophical opposites of the disciplined focused Germans, they are cowboys who dream about finding the next big thing instead of humbly perfecting their existing product. Long ago Microsoft had a way better product than Skype themselves, but they managed "MSN Messenger" so incredibly badly they lost all their market share. Well that cost them 8 billion dollars. Today Steve Ballmer says Microsoft have put failures such as MSN Messenger, Windows Mobile and Vista behind them; Steve Ballmer says Windows 7 and Office Ribbon are storming successes. I, however, think it's a disgrace that large numbers of Microsoft's customers still run Windows XP and Office XP, I think it's a disgrace that hundreds of millions of people around the world tear their hair out every day trying to solve PC problems. I believe in karma, I believe Microsoft is an injustice which has inflicted itself on hundreds of millions of people. In my opinion its arrogant disregard for its customers is pure evil, God wants Microsoft to fail, Steve Ballmer is a tyrant who will rot in hell. If he wrote me a check for a billion euros I wouldn't take it, his money is blood money. Socrates said injustice is involuntary stupidity, and I can't imagine a more terrible fate that being the mindless poisonous Steve Ballmer. One second inside Steve Ballmer and I would hurl myself off a bridge, his life is a terrible as his tyranny. In the bigger picture, the cess pit we call Microsoft is both a lesson for mankind and what this shallow senseless word deserves. People look at the world and wonder how God could be so cruel, but I marvel at how soft and patient he is. Dear God, unleash the fires of hell, this stagnant unjust world must reform, set man free, burn burn burn the world! |
| 11 May 2011 |
A Eurostate or bust – the big Brussels gamble, Kaletsky at The Times In a sea of journalistic stupidity a single light shines out, that of Anatole Kaletsky. Kaletsky points out that Greek default is no longer possible, the ECB own hundred of billions of euros worth of PIGS bonds. The rescue the EU embarked upon a year ago was a one way bet. Buy Greek bonds, they can't default. If they do the True Fins, True Dutch and True Germans will declare war when they hear how much the ECB has lost, and we will all be dead anyway. |
| 11 May 2011 |
Clegg promises "muscular liberalism" after
massive losses at council elections Muscular liberalism is one of David Cameron's slogans. It attempts to cash in on the on the move away from the political centre, the mushy idealistic liberal middle ground is rapidly going out of fashion today just as it did during the 1930s. The hopelessness of naive liberal idealism has long been the subject of articles on this blog, and was nicely summed up by George Dangerfield's book "The Strange Death Of Liberal England" in the mid 1930s. He said: "The Liberal government was dying with extreme reluctance and considerable skill. The workers were simply dissatisfied with it, they could hardly tell why; and indeed that fine old Liberal Hegelianism of at once believing in freedom and not believing in freedom was beyond the understanding of all but the elect. The Right wanted to reform pensions, health, strikes & education. The Left wanted to destroy the absolute powers of the Lords, to cripple the vast landed estates and insist that employers pay a living wage. Yes, good ideas on the right and left, but not in the middle, alas all of them required such a frightful impairment of freedom." So liberalism died. Good riddance, says Dangerfield, what a useless lot the liberals were. The new era was radical and violent, out of it grew fascism, socialism and WW2. |
| 27 Apr 2011 |
John Kay demonstrates Sophist Philosophy at the FT This article demonstrates what Socrates called "sophistry", this is where you latch onto one side of the argument using an emotional hook to argue the precise opposite of truth. This is why Plato called the parallel arguments of orators judged by non-specialist juries worthless. Proper analysis requires carefully netting truth. Kay doesn't do this because he doesn't understand the bifurcated nature of Form. Duality creates a loss of algorithmic determinacy, it's a issue in Quantum Mechanics, its why Roger Penrose says human thinking can not be modelled as a Turning Machine. So dialectic is a danger to the young, for simpletons like Kay it's better to imagine life as a chaotic system and think "statistically" (Keynes & Deng). If he had looked at the problem statistically by testing the consequences of AV on various scenarios he would have avoided constructing this absurd pseudo-logical line of reasoning. Of course, this same issue explains the failure of economic mathematics. |
| 25 Apr 2011 | IMF: China’s economy will surpass the U.S. in 2016 by PPP |
| 22 Apr 2011 |
Chinese censors consider banning 'frivolous' time travel dramas This Telegraph article is probably nonsense, it claims China are banning TV shows about time travel because they are mindless! Anyway, I love the idea! In fact, China are getting better, real self confidence and greater idealism is developing. As one commentator on the article put it: "At least the Chinese are smart enough to stop mind destroying trash from lowering the level of intelligence of their people. For the next 20 years, the people of the west need to ask themselves everyday, 'Why, on average, are the Chinese people so much stronger and such hard workers, when our people seem frail, weak, and want to live on benefits all their lives?'. You might watch what someone is putting into the heads of your people through the television if you are truly serious about wanting to know the answer." |
| 13 Apr 2011 |
Silicon Valley? Britain can have a Brain Belt (The Times) Lord Wolfson gets radical with plans for a new city. "But where will this cash-strapped Government get the money? Fortunately there is an innovative way to pay for it that will increase the chances of success. The Government could compulsorily purchase 10,000 acres of agricultural land". This is exactly what I have been banging on about, how to solve the housing crisis and stimulate the economy at no cost. (see "Soros predicts UK recession" below). |
| 21 Mar 2011 |
Stoic Japanese
vs looting American individualist anarchists of Katrina The question everyone wants to know is what are psychological the lessons of the earthquake? Now suppose radiation covered Japan, how could life go on? Not by looting, fleeing the country, buying up everything in the shops, or skipping work. Civilization could only survive if the people put aside their individualism and went on as normal, in other words even though they know they might die, they have to carry on living life as normally as possible. Imagine mankind, like the Band on the Titanic, playing his part to the last. This is not in fact the stoic idea of individual disclipline, it is something more, less heavy, more beautiful, more Spartan. If you think about the psychological affliction of Japan and the West, and the nature of the response needed to the crisis, then the 'Karma' is obvious. Remember that the Gods keep hurling down the psychological lessons until we evolve, how much death and disaster it takes before we get it is up to us. Based on the journalistic commentary I have seen we have a very long way to go! |
| 27 Feb 2011 |
Poll finds huge UK support for non violent far right (Guardian) Of course this is a point TheOligarch, or is that TheOracle, has been making repeatedly for months (eg in articles such as this one on Multiculturalism). |
| 27 Feb 2011 |
Look at how Africa is changing - African Peer Review Mechanism
(Guardian) Great article, sums up what the West should have been doing in the Middle East, ie focusing on economics and corruption, not human rights. The Guardian is getting better! By contrast, the FT recently published a completely absurd article on the Middle East by Lord Malloch-Brown which drew some of the most illogical conclusions from the human rights prism that I have even seen in my life! |
| 25 Feb 2011 |
Wikileaks shows Saudi wild party with Alcohol, drugs, sex and
prostitutes I have not read a single article that really sums up the Middle East situation properly. It is time I gave a quick summary: In one of Plato’s works the sophist called Protagoras describes a mythic story in which the Gods instil in man the two vital psychological principles which make human society possible: a sense of justice and shame. It is man’s desire for justice that drives him to impose laws upon others, and his fear of shame that prevents him committing social injustices personally. Together these two enormously powerful impulses, which are really alternative faces on one principle, and which exist in every man, create the communal good on which society is built. Every revolution ultimately has its roots in a sense of injustice and a failing of shame. In capitalism extreme income inequality is tolerated because it is perceived as just, it is believed that the rich capitalist deserves his fortune. Also, what a person chooses to do with his wealth is his own affair. But if capitalism creates monopoly, or if capitalism degenerates into shameful activity, it is finished. In Russia during the revolution people felt the wealth of the nobility had been unfairly amassed and was being shamefully squandered on individual luxuries. Was the distribution of wealth just? Was the use of wealth shameful? Both principles offended the intuitive sense of "justice" prevailing in society. Measure the stability of a country by the sense of justice that exists within it! Middle Eastern countries like Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia are cesspits of injustice. Until the Saudi Arabian royal family is emasculated and its wealth confiscated, Saudi Arabia is another tinder box waiting to explode. Think of the sense of outrage felt in the UK at Bank Bailouts and politicians fiddling their expenses. Now try to imagine how the Saudi Arabian masses felt when they read wikileaks stories about wild Saudi Royal family parties with prostitutes drugs and alcohol. This crisis is not about liberal values, it is about hereditary power, crony capitalism and elite immorality created by selfish hedonistic materialism. Liberal democracy is a tool to create justice that relies on capitalism, but it is not the definition of justice, it is just one of the many tools in the box. Do not think of justice as liberal democracy, rather as the morality and wisdom of the distribution of wealth and power. This is the essence of American foreign policy failure, Obama should be targeting justice directly not American ideologies which imperfectly express it. If you think about it carefully, you realize that the Islamists who claim Western values are poisoning their society are right- it is precisely the immorality of the elite that is the issue. The solution to the Middle East lies in more morality not less, although one has to take issue with the rigidity of Islamic ideologues. Like the Jewish religion, Islam's focus on binary conceptions of morality, on moral law, takes its followers away from the measured pursuit of individual self-perfection. In fact this blinded assumption that justice is liberalism is of course also the essence of America’s domestic failure, and the failure of laissez-faire economics. The defining of liberalism as justice, loosing sight of the real concept of justice, is the ideological trap the Western world has fallen into and which will destroy it. Protagoras said when Zeus gave these gifts of justice and shame to human civilization he said they let this single law be know to man from the Gods: Any many who does not feel justice and shame is a pestilence to society and shall be put to death. This is how deadly serious these values are, and it also nicely demonstrates that justice is not liberalism. |
| 03 Feb 2011 |
US Interests in Peril (Bloomberg)
Iran is
looking to project power (BBC) America has been stuck between a rock (Middle East Oil) and a hard place (American Jewry) for a long time. It takes real strength to preserve the impossible. But 2010 was the year of the tiger, the tiger is the most ideological of animals. In the year of the tiger the ideologies clash, and the outcome feeds into the new cycle. In 2010, the year of clashing ideologies, China vanquised America. Today the year of the rabbit begins, a time of changing alliances in the light of the ideological battle. So geopolitics is back in fashion, expect to see this year a dramatic swing in alliances from America to China. For example, I can't figure out what will happen in the Middle East, but democracy or not, it is moving away from the US. What about 2012? This is the year the rabbits grow up into dragons, and burn away the bad. Politics become not the embodiment of good, but the destruction of bad. I have begun to think of Chinese Astrology as follows: Dog, water father; Pig water mother; Rat, water son; OX earth mother; Tiger earth father; Rabbit earth daughter; Dragon, fire father, etc to the Rooster the air daughter. The transition on the year of the dragon is important anyway, moving from earth-water attachment to fire-air detachment in the quaternity. All of this in both the smaller 12 year cycle and the one/many mega cycle. I guess stocks rally up to 2012, but better to sit 2012 out, risk of big problems. In Europe I think the future is PIGS driving outrage, confirming the end of liberalism. Remember Germany is the key to the West, and I think Italy is a first mover. Italy is the failing state that can not fail. The Italians are more intuitive than the Germans, they are more likely to grasp the new realities. Italy going more authoritarian is what we are looking for, the start of the new era. Then Europe is saved and its game over for the hopeless Americans, it's really going all wrong remarkably fast. |
| 27 Jan 2011 |
Soros predicts UK recession (Bloomberg) Fine, but he also needs to offer some better advice on austerity. Tim Leunig of the Financial Times said today: "The coalition’s policy has been little short of a fiasco... Inspired by naïve localism and Big Society rhetoric, it has taken planning in the wrong direction, removing the sticks central government can use to force through the business parks and retail developments on which growth depends." Thank god that the FT have at last finally and properly said this, lets take it as now agreed that a more aggressive interventionist pragmatic government can deliver vastly higher growth in the long term (Obama's address called this the key realisation of our generation). But then we must ask ourselves about the short term fiscal outlook, for exploding sovereign debt yields are the issue of the hour. The question becomes: if policy making were to improve dramatically could we take a more gradual approach, or do we need to act fast regardless? Now it gets really interesting- I think the best way to demonstrate a quantum leap in interventionist government intelligence is to find a way to reign in the fiscal overhang quickly without cramping growth. Martin Wolf says that cutting a deficit without impacting growth is impossible. All you need to do to prove this argument wrong is provide a counter example. The most obvious one is Stalin! He confiscated wealth and reduced wages, driving a crash industrialization program which propelled a third world county into a superpower. Of course we are not going to get as radical as him, but Wolf's denial of any wiggle room is as naïve as Osborne's, although they both come at it in opposite ways. There was an FT article some time ago saying Austerity is not the only option which suggested taxing or nationalizing real estate. My crazy idea is to use compulsory purchase orders to acquire agricultural land around London at agricultural prices, then turn it into housing pocketing a vast profit. Also buy up swathes of run down London and covert it into Chelsea following Poundbury techniques, again at a profit. You can stimulate the economy, experiment with state capitalism, make money, and solve the housing crisis in the process. But maybe I am too liberal, we just could wipe out the entire national debt and abolish income tax simply by declaring that all UK property and land would revert to the government in say 40 years time for the poor and 20 years time for rich. Property prices would fall, but GDP need hardly move. Government owned real estate is a way better solution to revenue than income tax- witness the marvellous Singapore. God only knows how the Chinese blew it by over de-nationalizing, they have unleashed the single monster than can eat China alive. |
| 26 Jan 2011 |
Obama address speaks of state led capitalism (full text at the Guardian) Of course he is right about NASA, but wrong about solar panels and American high speed rail. Try a Manhattan Project style push into Fourth Generation Nuclear. |
| 25 Jan 2011 |
Tea Party groups rail at 'rent seeking' crony capitalist Jeffrey Immelt
(FT) These guys at FreedomWorks ect are getting better all the time. They are moving away from radical free market ideology toward aggressive Palinesque pragmatism. It's not an intellectual movement, but the anti-liberal zeitgeist is constructive. Now to really make progress they need to grasp the evils of the American health industry, they need to see the advantages of centralised state run Singapore style health care, if they go that far the Tea Party might just save America! |
| 25 Jan 2011 |
FSA chief seeks new consumer safeguards The transformation in Lord Tuner is amazing, it's like Saint Paul on the road to Damascus. Not everyone is impressed, the Foreign Policy Magazine's list of 'Top 100 Thinkers' missed out both Lord Turner and Wolfgang Schäuble. It rated Bill Gates 1st, and Obama 3rd :-) So much for elite intellect. |
| 24 Jan 2011 |
UK Politics: Cameron's Big Society in Crisis (UK Times) Cameron's Big Society initiative has gone from laughing stock to liability. Encouraging citizens to move beyond self interest is a laudable aim, but the Big Society is more of precisely the same sort of fluffy liberal poison that is already killing us. The UK is not only the most ideologically retarded state in Europe, it also has a completely reckless and ideologically radical government, so the UK is headed toward economic Armageddon. The philosophical theme driving the world today revolves around incompetent policy making, so you can spot the long term winners and losers just by thinking about government competence. The UK is at the forefront of stupidity, Germany is at the forefront of the new psychology. So we buy Germany and sell the UK, we can trade on big picture psychological instinct. |
| 24 Jan 2011 |
Swiss
vs Chinese Watches (Bloomberg) and
Samuel Brittan UK Inflation (FT) China produced 560 million watches in 2009, Switzerland produced 22 million, yet the Swiss industry’s revenue was almost five times higher. Now imagine you are an expensive tailor in the Industrial Revolution. First thing you notice is that the price of cloth falls, your profits go up. Then you notice all consumer goods falling in price, you see low inflation. Then the nouveau riche start buying your expensive suits, you are on a roll. Then one day the mass producers both catch up and the world figures out that your upmarket brand is over-pimped, your products are not socially useful. For you the output gap is huge, but the economy is still sizzling and inflation picks up. Your life then becomes a nightmare of stagflation. The combination of world inflation and socially useless inefficient production is very much key to understanding developed world decline. |
| 20 Jan 2011 |
Beijing and troubled nations: What to do in Sudan? (FT) How does China reconcile its foreign policy of non-interference with the increasing political chaos in Sudan, a country in which it has massive investments. |
| 18 Jan 2011 |
China's too big to be bullied by the US (Guardian) In 2010 the US has clashed with China over human rights, the Nobel prize, weapon sales to Twain, China's first aircraft carrier, intellectual property, currency manipulation, etc. China wants peace but it will not roll over. Right wing commentators in the US are talking about war, last week Obama was banging the human rights drum again. This political football is getting dangerously out of control. Western pressure on human rights and democracy will not work, China will find its own path, this conflict achieves nothing. America needs to recognise that American economic decline comes from within. President Bush was overwhelmed by the domestic issues confronting him, so he blamed America's problems on foreign bogeymen, now Obama is following the same path. Yet if Obama turns the Chinese people against America in the way that Bush has turned the Arab people against America, the United States will ultimately be destroyed. |
| 18 Jan 2011 |
US Democracy has little to teach China, Francis Fukuyama (FT) The quality of Chinese government is higher than in Russia, Iran, or the other authoritarian regimes with which it is often lumped... Chinese rulers feel accountability towards their population... The Chinese political system makes bold complex decisions far faster than, for example, democratic India... Americans pride themselves on constitutional checks and balances, based on a political culture that distrusts centralised government. This system has ensured individual liberty and a vibrant private sector, but it has now become polarised and ideologically rigid... During the 1989 Tiananmen protests, student demonstrators erected a model of the Statue of Liberty to symbolise their aspirations. Whether anyone in China would do the same at some future date is now open to question. |
| 16 Jan 2011 |
The King's Speech - a film by Tom Hooper My cousin is described as a 'Roi Soleil' having a sense of 'duality'. Extremely bizarre, I have just be writing about Louis XIV and duality is my speciality! |
| 14 Jan 2011 |
Why did the Iron Man of Tunis turn to rust? (The Times) Today's revolution is precisely what I have been talking about in various articles. Pretty much the entire world, except China and a few others, is run so badly that they are in danger of revolution. Today corrupt Tunisia, tomorrow bankrupt America. If the elite fail to improve their game they will be booted out, there will be no elite leadership, and the world will explode in a French Revolution style populist tyranny. The needle is in the red, the boiler is about to explode. |
| 14 Jan 2011 |
Roman
rise and fall 'recorded in trees' (BBC) I found a nice article about a correlation between political crisis and weather patterns discovered by historians looking at tree rings. |
| 09 Jan 2011 |
Lunar eclipse, dead birds, end of the world!
(TheOligarch) A slightly crazy article, also my last for the next few months. I wish I had gotten a chance to write about the advantages of state owned real estate, also more on the what Europe should be doing to compete. Alas I am afraid I am very tied up for the next few months. |
| 08 Jan 2011 |
Why Chinese Mothers Are Superior (Wall Street Journal) It's funny, for all the thousands of words I have written, and for all the intellectual vision I have tried to provide, Amy Chua has done more to change the world than I have. Her best selling 2010 book explains the benefits of Chinese style authoritarian paternalism in childcare. Without even realising it, she has helped to transform Western opinion of China and encourage the West toward psychological revaluation. By contrast my work has, so far at least, mostly been a waste of time - and not just a little time - three relentless years of research! |
| 30 Dec 2010 | American Wussification (girly democracy or manly authoritarianism?) |
| 11 Dec 2010 |
Transcript: Schäuble on the Euro (Wall Street Journal) Schäuble: "Sometimes it takes crises so that Europe moves forward. In this crisis, Europe will find steps toward further unification. It isn't easy. You can't just command European states and their populations... Public opinion will need time. This is true in all democracies... In Europe the nation state as the sole level of policy-making has exhausted its effectiveness... I am not the last pro-European in Germany, perhaps I'm the first European of the 21st century." |
| 10 Dec 2010 |
OECD rates Shanghai School Children as best in World Education in China is rapidly improving. Obama worries that US is being left behind. Shanghai's success was not based on a policy concentrating resources exclusively on "elite education", rather on targeting raising broad based educational achievements. The elitist French system was criticised. |
| 06 Dec 2010 |
US bank watchdog presses for fee clarity (FT) Nice article about promoting transparency in Banking in order to make the market more efficient. For more see this rent seeking article. |
| 06 Dec 2010 | Chinese outsiders shake up rules of M&A (FT) |
| 02 Dec 2010 |
Otmar Issing
is wrong - Bondholders should not pay (TheOligarch) Financial market spreads are not the way to ensure responsible policymaking, common bonds are a good idea, the emphasis must be on sovereignty. |
| 01 Dec 2010 |
Carmaking: A drive to Lego land An article about the awesome economies of scale in the automotive industry. VW's 52 billion euro plant upgrades are helping it to pull ahead of Totota. Flexible mega platform plants can now assemble cars of any size, shape and brand. |
| 23 Nov 2010 |
Hard
choices for South Korea after clashes (BBC) American power is in tatters - Clinton's push in Asia has failed. |
| 20 Nov 2010 |
Multiculturalism Failing & the Rise of The Far Right (TheOligarch) What do the Tea Party and the Far Right have in Common? |
| 19 Nov 2010 |
Price rises put Beijing on alert (FT) What happens when a nation of savers wakes up to negative rates and rising potato prices? This article doesn't even get around to mentioning the nightmare of rising sterilization costs - which I think is a huge and under-reported issue. |
| 19 Nov 2010 |
Gordon Brown had no idea how to do the job when he got it (UK Times) Nice article about Gordon Brown from the times. |
| 17 Nov 2010 | Confucius Prize could be weapon in battle of ideas (Global Times) |
| 05 Nov 2010 |
Asia: Shanghaied (FT) This article talks about the squeeze on Western bank profit margins as they compete for business in China. |
| 02 Nov 2010 |
Anatole Kaletsky: Federal Europe
(TheOligarch) He says: "This [developing] EU version of elitist representative democracy may go down in history as a more successful mechanism for managing the complex compromises demanded in a world of huge geopolitical change than the more populist US and British models." I think he is the only journalist who really gets it. |
| 29 Oct 2010 |
Argentina enters new political era (FT) Néstor Kirchner is dead. His legacy is fascinating. He delivered an average GDP growth rate of 8.8% yet he was very investor unfriendly, imposing price controls on private sector organizations whom he deemed were earning excess profits. |
| 26 Oct 2010 |
Xi
Jinping calls Korean War "great and just" (Global Times) The expected next leader of China fires a defiant warning shot across the bows of the American sanctions battleship blockading North Korea. |
| 21 Oct 2010 | Chinese Professor Republican Campaign Advertisement |
| 21 Oct 2010 | Osborne's Austerity Program Will Fail (TheOligarch) |
| 18 Oct 2010 |
Merkel Says Multiculturalism Has Failed in Germany (Guardian) The liberal consensus under threat. In the UN, support for what the US and EU call 'human rights' has declined dramatically in the last few years, see Backsliding on Human Rights By Richard Gowan and Franziska Brantner. The Guardian had a piece recently: Human Rights do not Exist, Andrew Brown. |
| 16 Oct 2010 |
No relief as dollar sell-off continues (FT) Capital flight to EM set to continue. Asian stocks on fire. |
| 16 Oct 2010 | Windows Mobile 7 is a Downmarket Geeky Disaster! (TheOligarch) |
| 14 Oct 2010 | Tea Party Analysis |
| 11 Oct 2010 |
Equality and Human Right Commission reports on UK Education The eye catching line is: "The highest performing group in the English State School System is that of Chinese girls, with Chinese Girls on free school meals outranking every other group's educational development – except better-off Chinese girls." |
| 08 Oct 2010 |
Nobel Peace Price to China Dissident Gandhi didn't win the peace price, thanks to UK influence. Now it has been given to Chinese dissent whose non-violent protest managed to attract only 300 signatures. Provoking China in this way and at this time is utter insanity. |
| 30 Sep 2010 |
Export Tax instead of yuan-dollar revaluation (FT) also
Export Tax
Utility It occurred to me recently that value added export tax is a possbile way out of this imbalances mess, and today I came across this 2005 article in the FT by Lawrence Lau and Joseph Stiglitz which also argues export tax might suit China. The article does not mention valued added export tax (taxing not by the finished price of the good, but rather by the valued added in China), but that must be an essential modification given China's important position as an assembler. |
| 28 Sep 2010 |
China: 40 years of high-speed railway development in just 5 years (FT)
Also this China now leads the world in high speed rail. One commentator asks why India has not done the same, but he misses the point:- this particular example is not really about cheap labour, it is about authoritarian economic models. |
| 28 Sep 2010 |
Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Vanity Fair) A popular essay about the horrifying levels of Greek corruption |
| 26 Sep 2010 |
Irish MPs finalise fate of stricken Anglo bank (FT) Ireland is mad to be absorbing these huge banking losses. It should wipe out unsecured bond holders. Public debt is now projected to peak at 98 per cent of gross domestic product in 2012 compared with 25 per cent pre-crisis. The claim that senior bond holders can not be legally made subordinate to depositors is rubbish. |
| 25 Sep 2010 |
Chinese Wages and Foreign Exploitation (Global Times) Wages in China are a bigger issues in 2010. |
| 15 Sep 2010 |
Scientific Development Concept (TheOligarch) I have rewritten this article, it is now much faster paced and shorter. |
| 14 Sep 2010 |
Metal prices on a high as Beijing goes green (FT) Nice article about rare earth production cuts |
| 07 Sep 2010 |
China vows to treat foreign business fairly (FT) The US, EU & Japan have all been complaining that in China the market share of foreign companies is shrinking. |
| 02 Sep 2010 | Book Review: Blair's Journey (TheOligarch) |
| 02 Sep 2010 |
Pakistan: A precarious position (FT) Another democracy teetering on the brink. How long before the Military take over? |
| 01 Sep 2010 |
Japanese school reforms fail to make grade (FT) A fascinating article. The Japanese government is rolling back liberal school reforms (less discipline, less competition, less route learning) which have damaged Japan's ranking in international educational league tables and created lazy and ill-disciplined children. Japan looks a total mess, but there is a whiff of change. They are cracking down on gangsters and looking for new idealism. This year is the anniversary of the death of Yukio Mishima, I think he would be pleased. |
| 27 Aug 2010 |
China poised to dump fossil fuels for nuclear (Global times) The Global Times is a Chinese Communist Party tabloid, the article talks about the development of fourth generation nuclear reactors. Fourth generation plants would revolutionize the world, they are very fuel efficient and consequently much cheaper to run, and they produce waste that decays in 500 years instead of 10,000 years. |
| 26 Aug 2010 |
72 innocents found dead in Mexican Massacre (Guardian) What is the world coming to? It's not just about indebted Western world political incompetence, most of the world is a total mess. |
| 20 Aug 2010 |
Joseph Stiglitz: New economic paradigm
(TheOligarch) The Noble Prize winning economist describes the state of economics |
| 19 Aug 2010 |
Frightened by the amazing iPad Intel acquires McAfee for $7.7bn (FT) The iPad is a game changer and Intel is worrying about its long term future as the ARM powered iPad gives us a possible glimpse of a PC free world. Intel, AMD, Nvidia are under pressure from falling PC sales. (but it's still an absurd purchase) |
| 16 Aug 2010 |
China Overtakes Japan as World's Second-Biggest Economy (Bloomberg) China now world’s biggest energy user (FT) More 2010 mile stones, it's a hell of a year! |
| 15 Aug 2010 |
Germany: On A Roll (FT) German is pulling away from Eurozone neighbours. Eurozone divergence is discussed in the article Eurozone Crisis. The dawning ascendancy of Germany is discussed in the article American Decline. |
| 12 Aug 2010 | Russian Forest Fires point toward EU membership (TheOligarch) |
| 11 Aug 2010 |
Junk Article: Gene Healy: Real 'hope and change' in the United Kingdom Most people will read this popular article and be thrilled, even The Guardian was impressed. Yet this article is pure junk, it is precisely this type of stupid thinking we are moving away from. |
| 03 Aug 2010 |
Chinese scientists working on 1,000kmph / 620mph Maglev train A 1,000kmph Maglev train running in an underground vacuum tunnel - Wild! |
| 29 Jul 2010 |
Research says climate change undeniable (FT) International scientists have injected fresh evidence into the debate over global warming, saying that climate change is “undeniable” and shows clear signs of “human fingerprints” in the first major piece of research since the “Climategate” controversy. |
| 29 Jul 2010 |
Greece: A marathon to sprint (FT) There is a scent of confidence in the air... There is a growing perception that this crisis has created a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reform the economy... “What is happening here is a revolution"... [The golden scenario I talked about in my article The Greek Fiscal Crisis may be developing]. |
| 28 Jul 2010 |
VW stuns markets with €1bn jump in profits (FT) Volkswagen, the German carmaker which has set itself a mission to overtake Japanese rival Toyota as the world's largest carmaker by 2018, has stunned markets by more than doubling its second-quarter operating profit. |
| 20 Jul 2010 |
E-books overtake hardcover (not soft cover) print sales at Amazon (FT) |
| 18 Jul 2010 |
William Hague denies Lockerbie bomber was freed to help BP (Guardian) Am I alone in finding this American accusation hilarious? Have these hypocrites forgotten what America has herself done for oil? If Cameron had a backbone he would publicly announce: either Obama imposes the old Camp David agreement on Israel, or the UK pulls out of Afghanistan and Iraq. |
| 14 Jul 2010 |
Singapore GDP grows at record 18% pace (FT) The latest Singapore GDP numbers are simply mind blowing. |
| 14 Jul 2010 |
Indian inflation stays above 10% (FT),
India struggles with Maoist Nepalis (FT) It's not just inflation, the gloss is coming off the Indian dream. |
| 13 Jul 2010 |
Obama faces growing credibility crisis (FT) I wrote about this last month in my America Dream article, its becoming bigger and bigger news. Both at home and abroad, people are beginning to despise Obama. |
| 12 Jul 2010 |
Why were natural resources and land expunged from neo-classical
economics? also
Why we must halt the land cycle also
Austerity is not the only option A series of FT articles about the failings of private property. Lease hold "state owned real estate" could prevent speculation, inflation & inequality. Also, it could raise tax revenue in a very progressive and non distorting way. What a tragedy these realizations have come too late for China. I am desperate to write a long article about this idea when I get a chance. |
| 23 Jun 2010 |
UK Coalition seeks to cut spending, not welfare, nor raise taxes (FT) This article picks up on, to some extent, what I believe is the key essence of the budget, yet which few have comment on. The general spending cuts being sought are unachievable, will damage growth both in the short and long term, and reflect political cowardice in not hitting health and pensions. Between 1996 and 2010 UK Government spending has risen by 7% of GDP, of this 5% is in pensions and health - but both these have been ringfenced! The popularity of the coalition government will not last in my opinion. Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Cable have unsurprisingly proved themselves incompetents. |
| 17 Jun 2010 | The End Of The American Dream -
Buy EURUSD (TheOligarch) I think the markets are wrong to be so bearish of the Euro. The decline of the US is picking up speed and the Germans are slowly turning the Euro ship around. |
| May 2010 |
Apple's Market Cap exceeds Microsofts (CNN) The authoritarian designer trumps the individualist geeks |
| May 2010 |
China's Sustainable Trade Strategy: An overview How China plans to reduce the trade deficit - move up value chain. |
| May 2010 |
The Eurozone Crisis (Eurozone Crisis)
(TheOligarch) An article looking in detail at the whole Eurozone crisis and the long term implications for the Euro. |
| May 2010 |
The new politics is pragmatic (Shirley Williams at The Guardian) People are finally getting this concept of pragmatism. You see worlds like pragmatic, ideological, partisan, tribal all over the papers now. |
| May 2010 |
Cameron & Clegg - New Politics? (TheOligarch) A first look at the freshly installed UK Government Con-Lib Alliance. |
| Apr 2010 | Forget Iraq, Afghanistan's turning into a disaster too |
| Apr 2010 |
Is the Arab world ready for a reading revolution? (Guardian) The answer is absolutely yes! One day I plan to write a Middle East article. |
| Apr 2010 |
Nick Clegg - Revolution? (TheOligarch) Nick Clegg bubble - Does it make any sense? |
| Mar 2010 |
Energy: The rise of shale gas Within three years the world has gone from running out of natural gas to being drowned in it... a game changer for the US and probably the world. |
| Feb 2010 |
New capitalist model needed: World Economic Forum (Anatole
Kaletsky) "THE most important statements are often those that are left unsaid. At Davos, the question that nobody quite dared to utter was clear: will the new model of economics that emerges to dominate the world will be a radically reformed version of the Western democratic system or some variant of the authoritarian state-led capitalism favoured in China?" Of course I have been banging on about this for years, but it is great to see Kaletsky picking up on the point. It annoys me that the FT still haven't embraced this theme. |
| Jan 2010 |
The End of the Noughties (TheOligarch) Reflecting on the end of the noughties, and looking forward to the new decade. |
| Dec 2009 |
The Greek Crisis (Eurozone Crisis)
(TheOligarch) An article about the developing Greek fiscal crisis and how it should be handled. |