Libya, Arab Spring, Popular Revolution

21 Oct 2011

News: WWest Hails Death of First Tyrant Killed by Arab Spring Revolutions (WSJ)

I wish Libya well, but I do not believe in popular revolution myself. It's a lovely idea that theoretically gets the job done quickly, but most of these revolutions end up like the French Revolution, the Cultural Revolution etc. I worry about the potential for democracy to collapse in the West. I can't see how democracy can survive the sort of horrendous lifestyle changes and structural reforms required in failing states such as Greece. In the 1970s Greece became a fascist dictatorship, yet people today are both vastly more spoilt and headed for vastly more pain. Even in those countries, like Germany, that have a reasonable future, I can't see how nationalism and war can fail to be provoked by the financial losses irresponsible neighbours will inflict upon her. The Western World in its current form, run by zombies that is, is a sinking ship with a mutinous crew. So I don't believe in provoking violent popular revolutions, I believe in teaching the elite philosophy. Perhaps you think I am mad as Gandhi, they just won't listen. But I believe in a strange sort of way that wisdom always triumphs in the end, those who spurn the truth don't just end up in hell, their regime fails on planet earth as well.

Nato's success is no surprise, if someone had handed machine guns to the London rioters and knocked out the army in air strikes, the UK would probably have a new 'elite' by now! Perhaps you think they couldn't do a worse job than David Cameron, but remember Cambodia! So with arms drops and air strikes, Nato could easily bring down every state in the Middle East- but would that be a good idea? I don't know anything about Syria, but my guess is that we could really do with some quiet contemplation time right now, we don't need to bring down more countries before we see how the existing revolutions work out. The terrible truth is that demographics and populism and paranoia and lack of education in the Middle East suggest it is headed towards catastrophe. Over the next few years we could be looking at disasters in Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Libya etc that end up putting the Western World's reputation and oil security at risk.

Remember Deng's advice: Wade across the river feeling for the stones, don't try to leap across dangerously. We have lost all that old fashioned caution, we are the twitter and facebook generation, in love with our ourselves, in love with our technology, full of the joys of spring, leaping across rivers with blind faith, filled with the same sort of self confidence in our moral compass that the Captain of the Titanic had in 1912. Today we look back at the Titanic disaster and marvel at the incredible stupidity and arrogance of steaming at 25 knots though iceburgs. It was a metaphor that captured the zeitgeist of the times, the hubris of the "enlightened" British Empire that two years later started sending its men to die by their thousands in mindless trench warfare. A hundred years from now what will historians say about the early 21st Century? Do you think we are better today, or worse?

News Update 22 Oct 2001: Liberals horrified by Gaddafi Execution! (Guardian)

The Guardian is up in arms! On the World Service last night a BBC reporter called the nice Libyan kids he was interviewing "psychopaths"! These liberals are zombies, thank god the world is turning away from them at last. For the UN to talk about the new Libyan government as possibly guilty of "War Crimes" is rank stupidity of the nth degree that will only damage both itself and the situation.